PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Milan vs Bologna · Serie A

Milan

WWDDW
vsPre-match analysis

Bologna

LLDLD

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
20.6
Expected goals
1.371.18
Shots
12.813.4
Possession
60.6%52%

30-second read

What the record shows

One pattern stands out in the record: bologna's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. The next-strongest reading is weaker: milan have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Bologna show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bologna's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.8 shots/match ▲ShotsMilan · Bologna13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMilanBolognaBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match13.4 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots against9 shots/match12 shots/match15.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Milan have recorded the higher season possession share.

60.6% ●PossessionMilan · Bologna52%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMilanBolognaBaseline
Possession60.6%52%48.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Milan favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Bologna in 1 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Milan5 matchesBologna5 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
0.8 goals/match ▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
1.37 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/51.18 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots5/513.4 shots/match
4.2 shots/match ▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match
60.6% ●Possession5/552%
2.8 corners/matchCorners5/5● 4.2 corners/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/514.6 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Milan
1Draws
1Bologna
Bologna — Milan · Serie A0–3
Milan — Bologna · Serie A1–0
Milan — Bologna · Serie A3–1
Bologna — Milan · Serie A2–1
Milan — Bologna · Serie A2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness39 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 28 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMilanBologna
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headMilan — Bologna
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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