Liga Profesional de Fútbol · 2026

Sarmiento vs River Plate · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.111.37
Expected goals
1.291.42
Shots
10.516.2
Possession
44.6%65.1%

30-second read

What the record shows

One pattern stands out in the record: river Plate's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. The next-strongest reading is weaker: river Plate have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

River Plate's recent record differs from the season

moderate

River Plate's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.37 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.37 goals/match1.07 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

River Plate show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

River Plate's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.5 shots/match ▲ShotsSarmiento · River Plate16.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSarmientoRiver PlateBaseline
Shots10.5 shots/match16.2 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against15 shots/match9 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

River Plate have a visible away split

moderate

River Plate's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12.8 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season16.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match16.2 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Sarmiento favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · River Plate in 12

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Sarmiento27 matchesRiver Plate30 matches
1.11 goals/matchGoals scored27/30▲ 1.37 goals/match
1.37 goals/matchGoals allowed27/30▲ 0.93 goals/match
1.29 xG/matchExpected goals10/14▲ 1.42 xG/match
10.5 shots/matchShots27/30▲ 16.2 shots/match
3.78 shots/matchShots on target27/30▲ 5.27 shots/match
44.6%Possession27/30● 65.1%
3.7 corners/matchCorners27/30● 5.3 corners/match
4.25 cards/matchCards12/132.69 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls27/3012 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Sarmiento
0Draws
1River Plate
River Plate — Sarmiento · Liga Profesional de Fútbol2–0

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness26 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Liga Profesional de Fútbol

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