PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Inter vs Fiorentina · Serie A

Inter

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vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
31.2
Expected goals
2.731.6
Shots
23.216.8
Possession
63%43.4%

30-second read

What the record shows

One pattern stands out in the record: inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. The next-strongest reading is weaker: inter have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Inter show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

23.2 shots/match ▲ShotsInter · Fiorentina16.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricInterFiorentinaBaseline
Shots23.2 shots/match16.8 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots against11.4 shots/match11.8 shots/match15.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Inter have recorded the higher season possession share.

63% ●PossessionInter · Fiorentina43.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 19.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricInterFiorentinaBaseline
Possession63%43.4%48.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Inter favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Fiorentina in 1 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Inter5 matchesFiorentina5 matches
3 goals/match ▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/match ▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
2.73 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/51.6 xG/match
23.2 shots/match ▲Shots5/516.8 shots/match
7.4 shots/match ▲Shots on target5/55.6 shots/match
63% ●Possession5/543.4%
6.2 corners/match ●Corners5/54.4 corners/match
6.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Inter
1Draws
1Fiorentina
Fiorentina — Inter · Serie A1–1
Inter — Fiorentina · Serie A3–0
Inter — Fiorentina · Serie A2–1
Fiorentina — Inter · Serie A3–0
Fiorentina — Inter · Serie A0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness36 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsInterFiorentina
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headInter — Fiorentina
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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