Grêmio
Serie A · 2026Grêmio 2–1 São Paulo · Serie A
This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.
Match at a glance
Grêmio won 2–1.
- Shots
- 12–19
- Shots on target
- 5–5
- Expected goals
- 1.62–1.72
- Possession
- 48%–52%
Full time
What the match recorded
Grêmio beat São Paulo 2–1. Recorded in this match (Grêmio – São Paulo): shots 12–19, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 1.62–1.72, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.
Pre-match record
What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.
Grêmio's recent record differs from the season
moderateGrêmio's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.
Window: last_5 versus season
| Metric | Last 5 | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1.6 goals/match | 1.15 goals/match | 1.28 goals/match |
Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.
Grêmio have a visible home split
strongGrêmio's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.
Window: home
| Metric | Home only | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 14.1 shots/match | 11.2 shots/match | 13.1 shots/match |
Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.
Grêmio show a distinct attacking-volume record
weakGrêmio's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.
Window: season
| Metric | Grêmio | São Paulo | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 11.2 shots/match | 12.6 shots/match | 13.1 shots/match |
| Shots against | 14.1 shots/match | 12.2 shots/match | 13.7 shots/match |
Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.
This match
Match statistics
Every shot
Shot map
Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.
- off target
- on target
- goal
- penalty
- size = xG
Grêmio: 12 shots, 5 on target, 1.70 xG. São Paulo: 18 shots, 5 on target, 1.74 xG. · 1 unplaced
How the match built
Expected-goals timeline
Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.
The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Grêmio 1.70 xG · São Paulo 1.74 xG.
History
Head-to-head
Recent meetings between these teams.
Last 5 meetings
Metric comparison
Team comparison
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
Season: Grêmio favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · São Paulo in 10 · 2 too close
Window
Season
Window
Last 10
Window
Last 5
Window
Home–Away
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
- Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 0 matches
Grêmio / São Paulo
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
More football
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Make a graphic from this match
Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.