PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Atlético Mineiro 3–1 Fluminense · Serie A

3–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Atlético Mineiro won 3–1.

Shots
159
Shots on target
73
Expected goals
1.880.55
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atlético Mineiro beat Fluminense 3–1. Recorded in this match (Atlético Mineiro – Fluminense): shots 15–9, shots on target 7–3, expected goals 1.88–0.55, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fluminense's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fluminense's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.6 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.6 goals/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Fluminense have recorded the higher season possession share.

49.3%PossessionAtlético Mineiro · Fluminense● 59.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAtlético MineiroFluminenseBaseline
Possession49.3%59.1%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots9 shotsAtlético Mineiro 15 shots, Fluminense 9 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots3 shotsAtlético Mineiro 7 shots, Fluminense 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.88 xG0.55 xGAtlético Mineiro 1.88 xG, Fluminense 0.55 xG
  • Possession48%52%Atlético Mineiro 48%, Fluminense 52%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersAtlético Mineiro 5 corners, Fluminense 2 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls11 foulsAtlético Mineiro 8 fouls, Fluminense 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsAtlético Mineiro 1 card, Fluminense 2 cards
  • Passes495 passes538 passesAtlético Mineiro 495 passes, Fluminense 538 passes
  • Pass accuracy87.5%88.1%Atlético Mineiro 87.5%, Fluminense 88.1%
  • Shots inside box6 shots4 shotsAtlético Mineiro 6 shots, Fluminense 4 shots
  • Blocked shots5 blocks1 blockAtlético Mineiro 5 blocks, Fluminense 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves5 savesAtlético Mineiro 2 saves, Fluminense 5 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides0 offsidesAtlético Mineiro 2 offsides, Fluminense 0 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Atlético Mineiro
1Draws
3Fluminense
Fluminense — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A1–0
Fluminense — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A3–0
Atlético Mineiro — Fluminense · Serie A3–2
Atlético Mineiro — Fluminense · Serie A0–2
Fluminense — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Mineiro favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Fluminense in 7 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Mineiro25 matchesFluminense25 matches
1.32 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲ 1.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/match ▲Goals allowed25/251.36 goals/match
1.32 xG/match ▲Expected goals21/211.25 xG/match
13.3 shots/matchShots25/25▲ 14.7 shots/match
4.44 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲ 5.56 shots/match
49.3%Possession25/25● 59.1%
4.8 corners/matchCorners25/25● 5.76 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/53.4 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls25/2513.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlético MineiroFluminense
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headAtlético Mineiro — Fluminense
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required