PitchMath
Serie A · 2022

Botafogo 1–3 Palmeiras · Serie A

1–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Palmeiras won 1–3.

Shots
1012
Shots on target
25
Expected goals
0.932.51
Possession
49%51%

Full time

What the match recorded

Palmeiras beat Botafogo 3–1. Recorded in this match (Botafogo – Palmeiras): shots 10–12, shots on target 2–5, expected goals 0.93–2.51, possession 49%–51%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Botafogo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Botafogo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goal/match1.05 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Palmeiras have a visible away split

moderate

Palmeiras's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

14.6 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season17.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.6 shots/match17.2 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots12 shotsBotafogo 10 shots, Palmeiras 12 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots5 shotsBotafogo 2 shots, Palmeiras 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.93 xG2.51 xGBotafogo 0.93 xG, Palmeiras 2.51 xG
  • Possession49%51%Botafogo 49%, Palmeiras 51%
  • Corners2 corners6 cornersBotafogo 2 corners, Palmeiras 6 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls14 foulsBotafogo 16 fouls, Palmeiras 14 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Botafogo
0Draws
1Palmeiras
Palmeiras — Botafogo · Serie A4–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Botafogo favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Palmeiras in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Botafogo29 matchesPalmeiras29 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored29/29▲ 1.66 goals/match
1.14 goals/matchGoals allowed29/29▲ 0.69 goals/match
1.09 xG/matchExpected goals29/29▲ 1.72 xG/match
13.9 shots/matchShots29/29▲ 17.2 shots/match
4.55 shots/matchShots on target29/29▲ 5.59 shots/match
49.7%Possession29/29● 53.2%
4.79 corners/matchCorners29/29● 7.62 corners/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls29/2912.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 4 Oct 2022, 03:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBotafogoPalmeiras
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2022
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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