PitchMath
Serie A · 2022

Red Bull Bragantino 4–2 Athletico · Serie A

4–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Red Bull Bragantino won 4–2.

Shots
119
Shots on target
64
Expected goals
2.280.41
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

Red Bull Bragantino beat Athletico 4–2. Recorded in this match (Red Bull Bragantino – Athletico): shots 11–9, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 2.28–0.41, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Athletico's recent record differs from the season

weak

Athletico's last-five shots average is above their season average.

16.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots16.2 shots/match13 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots9 shotsRed Bull Bragantino 11 shots, Athletico 9 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shotsRed Bull Bragantino 6 shots, Athletico 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.28 xG0.41 xGRed Bull Bragantino 2.28 xG, Athletico 0.41 xG
  • Possession48%52%Red Bull Bragantino 48%, Athletico 52%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersRed Bull Bragantino 4 corners, Athletico 4 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls13 foulsRed Bull Bragantino 16 fouls, Athletico 13 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Red Bull Bragantino
0Draws
1Athletico
Athletico — Red Bull Bragantino · Serie A4–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Red Bull Bragantino favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Athletico in 2 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Red Bull Bragantino33 matchesAthletico33 matches
1.36 goals/match ▲Goals scored33/331.21 goals/match
1.36 goals/matchGoals allowed33/33▲ 1.21 goals/match
1.45 xG/match ▲Expected goals33/331.27 xG/match
15 shots/match ▲Shots33/3313 shots/match
4.76 shots/match ▲Shots on target33/334.24 shots/match
49.8% ●Possession33/3344.6%
5.97 corners/match ●Corners33/335.45 corners/match
14 fouls/matchFouls33/3314.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 22 Oct 2022, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRed Bull BragantinoAthletico
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2022
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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