PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Grêmio 3–1 América Mineiro · Serie A

Grêmio

DWWWL
3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Grêmio won 3–1.

Shots
228
Shots on target
92
Expected goals
2.370.83
Possession
72%28%

Full time

What the match recorded

Grêmio beat América Mineiro 3–1. Recorded in this match (Grêmio – América Mineiro): shots 22–8, shots on target 9–2, expected goals 2.37–0.83, possession 72%–28%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Grêmio's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Grêmio's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.55 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.55 goals/match1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

América Mineiro show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

América Mineiro's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.8 shots/match ▲ShotsGrêmio · América Mineiro14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricGrêmioAmérica MineiroBaseline
Shots14.8 shots/match14.2 shots/match13.7 shots/match
Shots against17.5 shots/match14.5 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots22 shots8 shotsGrêmio 22 shots, América Mineiro 8 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots2 shotsGrêmio 9 shots, América Mineiro 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.37 xG0.83 xGGrêmio 2.37 xG, América Mineiro 0.83 xG
  • Possession72%28%Grêmio 72%, América Mineiro 28%
  • Corners10 corners2 cornersGrêmio 10 corners, América Mineiro 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls11 foulsGrêmio 10 fouls, América Mineiro 11 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Grêmio favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · América Mineiro in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Grêmio11 matchesAmérica Mineiro11 matches
1.55 goals/match ▲Goals scored11/111.09 goals/match
1.45 goals/match ▲Goals allowed11/112.27 goals/match
1.43 xG/match ▲Expected goals11/111.29 xG/match
14.8 shots/matchShots11/1114.2 shots/match
5.82 shots/match ▲Shots on target11/114.64 shots/match
46.1% ●Possession11/1142%
5.64 corners/match ●Corners11/114.45 corners/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls11/1115.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 23 Jun 2023, 02:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsGrêmioAmérica Mineiro
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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