PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Coritiba 2–4 Bahia · Serie A

2–4Historical match

Bahia

WLWLD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bahia won 2–4.

Shots
1518
Shots on target
610
Expected goals
1.274.22
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bahia beat Coritiba 4–2. Recorded in this match (Coritiba – Bahia): shots 15–18, shots on target 6–10, expected goals 1.27–4.22, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bahia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bahia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.17 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Coritiba show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Coritiba's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.1 shots/match ▲ShotsCoritiba · Bahia14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCoritibaBahiaBaseline
Shots12.1 shots/match14 shots/match13.8 shots/match
Shots against15.2 shots/match11.6 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots18 shotsCoritiba 15 shots, Bahia 18 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots10 shotsCoritiba 6 shots, Bahia 10 shots
  • Expected goals1.27 xG4.22 xGCoritiba 1.27 xG, Bahia 4.22 xG
  • Possession55%45%Coritiba 55%, Bahia 45%
  • Corners7 corners2 cornersCoritiba 7 corners, Bahia 2 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls17 foulsCoritiba 14 fouls, Bahia 17 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Coritiba
0Draws
1Bahia
Bahia — Coritiba · Serie A3–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Coritiba favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Bahia in 9 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Coritiba22 matchesBahia23 matches
1.05 goals/matchGoals scored22/23▲ 1.17 goals/match
2.09 goals/matchGoals allowed22/23▲ 1.35 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goals22/23▲ 1.36 xG/match
12.1 shots/matchShots22/23▲ 14 shots/match
4.73 shots/matchShots on target22/234.57 shots/match
44%Possession22/23● 51.7%
5 corners/matchCorners22/23● 6.04 corners/match
16.2 fouls/matchFouls22/2315.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 15 Sept 2023, 03:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCoritibaBahia
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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