PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Red Bull Bragantino 2–0 Grêmio · Serie A

2–0Historical match

Grêmio

LWLWW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Red Bull Bragantino won 2–0.

Shots
1610
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
1.331.33
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

Red Bull Bragantino beat Grêmio 2–0. Recorded in this match (Red Bull Bragantino – Grêmio): shots 16–10, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 1.33–1.33, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Red Bull Bragantino's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Red Bull Bragantino's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.35 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.35 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Red Bull Bragantino show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Red Bull Bragantino's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.2 shots/match ▲ShotsRed Bull Bragantino · Grêmio13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRed Bull BragantinoGrêmioBaseline
Shots16.2 shots/match13.5 shots/match13.8 shots/match
Shots against11.1 shots/match16.5 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Red Bull Bragantino have a visible home split

moderate

Red Bull Bragantino's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

19.2 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season16.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots19.2 shots/match16.2 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots10 shotsRed Bull Bragantino 16 shots, Grêmio 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shotsRed Bull Bragantino 4 shots, Grêmio 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.33 xG1.33 xGRed Bull Bragantino 1.33 xG, Grêmio 1.33 xG
  • Possession59%41%Red Bull Bragantino 59%, Grêmio 41%
  • Corners5 corners1 cornerRed Bull Bragantino 5 corners, Grêmio 1 corner
  • Fouls21 fouls16 foulsRed Bull Bragantino 21 fouls, Grêmio 16 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Red Bull Bragantino
1Draws
0Grêmio
Grêmio — Red Bull Bragantino · Serie A3–3

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Red Bull Bragantino favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Grêmio in 1 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Red Bull Bragantino23 matchesGrêmio22 matches
1.35 goals/matchGoals scored23/22▲ 1.55 goals/match
0.91 goals/match ▲Goals allowed23/221.23 goals/match
1.43 xG/matchExpected goals23/221.43 xG/match
16.2 shots/match ▲Shots23/2213.5 shots/match
5.74 shots/match ▲Shots on target23/225.09 shots/match
55.9% ●Possession23/2245.3%
6.87 corners/match ●Corners23/225.14 corners/match
16.7 fouls/matchFouls23/2212.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples23 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 15 Sept 2023, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRed Bull BragantinoGrêmio
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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