PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

São Paulo 1–2 Fortaleza · Serie A

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fortaleza won 1–2.

Shots
138
Shots on target
74
Expected goals
1.631.15
Possession
73%27%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fortaleza beat São Paulo 2–1. Recorded in this match (São Paulo – Fortaleza): shots 13–8, shots on target 7–4, expected goals 1.63–1.15, possession 73%–27%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fortaleza's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fortaleza's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.21 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.21 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

São Paulo have recorded the higher season possession share.

61% ●PossessionSão Paulo · Fortaleza46.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricSão PauloFortalezaBaseline
Possession61%46.1%47.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots8 shotsSão Paulo 13 shots, Fortaleza 8 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots4 shotsSão Paulo 7 shots, Fortaleza 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.63 xG1.15 xGSão Paulo 1.63 xG, Fortaleza 1.15 xG
  • Possession73%27%São Paulo 73%, Fortaleza 27%
  • Corners9 corners0 cornersSão Paulo 9 corners, Fortaleza 0 corners
  • Fouls21 fouls14 foulsSão Paulo 21 fouls, Fortaleza 14 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0São Paulo
2Draws
1Fortaleza
Fortaleza — São Paulo · Serie A0–0
São Paulo — Fortaleza · Serie A0–1
Fortaleza — São Paulo · Serie A1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: São Paulo favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Fortaleza in 4 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

São Paulo23 matchesFortaleza24 matches
1.17 goals/matchGoals scored23/241.21 goals/match
1.09 goals/matchGoals allowed23/24▲ 0.96 goals/match
1.36 xG/matchExpected goals23/24▲ 1.5 xG/match
14.6 shots/matchShots23/2414.9 shots/match
4.83 shots/matchShots on target23/24▲ 5.33 shots/match
61% ●Possession23/2446.1%
6.3 corners/match ●Corners23/245.04 corners/match
14.7 fouls/matchFouls23/2414 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples23 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 21 Sept 2023, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSão PauloFortaleza
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
Head-to-headSão Paulo — Fortaleza
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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