PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

São Paulo 2–1 Coritiba · Serie A

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

São Paulo won 2–1.

Shots
147
Shots on target
62
Expected goals
1.630.77
Possession
63%37%

Full time

What the match recorded

São Paulo beat Coritiba 2–1. Recorded in this match (São Paulo – Coritiba): shots 14–7, shots on target 6–2, expected goals 1.63–0.77, possession 63%–37%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Coritiba's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Coritiba's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.04 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.04 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

São Paulo have recorded the higher season possession share.

61.1% ●PossessionSão Paulo · Coritiba43.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricSão PauloCoritibaBaseline
Possession61.1%43.8%48.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots7 shotsSão Paulo 14 shots, Coritiba 7 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots2 shotsSão Paulo 6 shots, Coritiba 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.63 xG0.77 xGSão Paulo 1.63 xG, Coritiba 0.77 xG
  • Possession63%37%São Paulo 63%, Coritiba 37%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersSão Paulo 4 corners, Coritiba 3 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls12 foulsSão Paulo 12 fouls, Coritiba 12 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1São Paulo
2Draws
0Coritiba
Coritiba — São Paulo · Serie A1–1
São Paulo — Coritiba · Serie A3–1
Coritiba — São Paulo · Serie A1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: São Paulo favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Coritiba in 1

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

São Paulo24 matchesCoritiba24 matches
1.21 goals/match ▲Goals scored24/241.04 goals/match
1.08 goals/match ▲Goals allowed24/242.21 goals/match
1.38 xG/match ▲Expected goals24/241.08 xG/match
14.5 shots/match ▲Shots24/2411.7 shots/match
4.88 shots/match ▲Shots on target24/244.54 shots/match
61.1% ●Possession24/2443.8%
6.21 corners/match ●Corners24/244.71 corners/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls24/2416 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 28 Sept 2023, 02:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSão PauloCoritiba
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
Head-to-headSão Paulo — Coritiba
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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