PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Fluminense 1–0 São Paulo · Serie A

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fluminense won 1–0.

Shots
244
Shots on target
81
Expected goals
1.020.09
Possession
60%40%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fluminense beat São Paulo 1–0. Recorded in this match (Fluminense – São Paulo): shots 24–4, shots on target 8–1, expected goals 1.02–0.09, possession 60%–40%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fluminense's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fluminense's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.29 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.29 goals/match1.15 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

São Paulo have a visible away split

moderate

São Paulo's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.8 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match13.6 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots24 shots4 shotsFluminense 24 shots, São Paulo 4 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots1 shotFluminense 8 shots, São Paulo 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.02 xG0.09 xGFluminense 1.02 xG, São Paulo 0.09 xG
  • Possession60%40%Fluminense 60%, São Paulo 40%
  • Corners3 corners4 cornersFluminense 3 corners, São Paulo 4 corners
  • Fouls25 fouls14 foulsFluminense 25 fouls, São Paulo 14 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Fluminense
1Draws
1São Paulo
São Paulo — Fluminense · Serie A1–0
Fluminense — São Paulo · Serie A3–1
São Paulo — Fluminense · Serie A2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fluminense favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · São Paulo in 6 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fluminense34 matchesSão Paulo34 matches
1.29 goals/match ▲Goals scored34/341.09 goals/match
1.24 goals/matchGoals allowed34/34▲ 1.06 goals/match
1.31 xG/matchExpected goals34/341.35 xG/match
14.4 shots/match ▲Shots34/3413.6 shots/match
5.56 shots/match ▲Shots on target34/344.59 shots/match
61.1% ●Possession34/3460.2%
5.68 corners/matchCorners34/34● 5.74 corners/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls34/3414.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 23 Nov 2023, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFluminenseSão Paulo
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
Head-to-headFluminense — São Paulo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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