PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Flamengo 1–0 Red Bull Bragantino · Serie A

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Flamengo won 1–0.

Shots
1619
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
1.161.25
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

Flamengo beat Red Bull Bragantino 1–0. Recorded in this match (Flamengo – Red Bull Bragantino): shots 16–19, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 1.16–1.25, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Red Bull Bragantino's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Red Bull Bragantino's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.35 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.35 goals/match1.15 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Red Bull Bragantino show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Red Bull Bragantino's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.6 shots/match ▲ShotsFlamengo · Red Bull Bragantino16.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFlamengoRed Bull BragantinoBaseline
Shots12.6 shots/match16.8 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against14.7 shots/match12.2 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Red Bull Bragantino have a visible away split

moderate

Red Bull Bragantino's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

14.2 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season16.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.2 shots/match16.8 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots19 shotsFlamengo 16 shots, Red Bull Bragantino 19 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsFlamengo 4 shots, Red Bull Bragantino 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.16 xG1.25 xGFlamengo 1.16 xG, Red Bull Bragantino 1.25 xG
  • Possession53%47%Flamengo 53%, Red Bull Bragantino 47%
  • Corners8 corners6 cornersFlamengo 8 corners, Red Bull Bragantino 6 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls15 foulsFlamengo 10 fouls, Red Bull Bragantino 15 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Flamengo
0Draws
2Red Bull Bragantino
Red Bull Bragantino — Flamengo · Serie A4–0
Flamengo — Red Bull Bragantino · Serie A4–1
Red Bull Bragantino — Flamengo · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Flamengo favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Red Bull Bragantino in 8 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Flamengo34 matchesRed Bull Bragantino34 matches
1.5 goals/match ▲Goals scored34/341.35 goals/match
1.09 goals/matchGoals allowed34/34▲ 0.88 goals/match
1.31 xG/matchExpected goals34/34▲ 1.59 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShots34/34▲ 16.8 shots/match
4.71 shots/matchShots on target34/34▲ 5.56 shots/match
57.5% ●Possession34/3456%
5.15 corners/matchCorners34/34● 7.29 corners/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls34/3416.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 24 Nov 2023, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFlamengoRed Bull Bragantino
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
Head-to-headFlamengo — Red Bull Bragantino
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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