PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Juventude 3–0 Grêmio · Serie A

3–0Historical match

Grêmio

LLDWD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Juventude won 3–0.

Shots
1413
Shots on target
65
Expected goals
1.660.77
Possession
49%51%

Full time

What the match recorded

Juventude beat Grêmio 3–0. Recorded in this match (Juventude – Grêmio): shots 14–13, shots on target 6–5, expected goals 1.66–0.77, possession 49%–51%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Juventude, Grêmio.

2.88 days ▲Rest daysJuventude · Grêmio2.88 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricJuventudeGrêmioBaseline
Rest days2.88 days2.88 days—
Matches last 14 days4 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Grêmio's recent record differs from the season

weak

Grêmio's last-five shots average is above their season average.

12.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match11.1 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots13 shotsJuventude 14 shots, Grêmio 13 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots5 shotsJuventude 6 shots, Grêmio 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.66 xG0.77 xGJuventude 1.66 xG, Grêmio 0.77 xG
  • Possession49%51%Juventude 49%, Grêmio 51%
  • Corners3 corners8 cornersJuventude 3 corners, Grêmio 8 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls10 foulsJuventude 14 fouls, Grêmio 10 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Juventude favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Grêmio in 4 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Juventude14 matchesGrêmio13 matches
1.29 goals/match ▲Goals scored14/130.77 goals/match
1.36 goals/matchGoals allowed14/131.31 goals/match
1.26 xG/match ▲Expected goals14/130.92 xG/match
13.2 shots/match ▲Shots14/1311.1 shots/match
4.57 shots/match ▲Shots on target14/134 shots/match
50.4% ●Possession14/1349.2%
4.43 corners/matchCorners14/13● 5.46 corners/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls14/1310.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 7 Jul 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsJuventudeGrêmio
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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