PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Botafogo 4–1 Flamengo · Serie A

4–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Botafogo won 4–1.

Shots
1910
Shots on target
94
Expected goals
3.30.82
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Botafogo beat Flamengo 4–1. Recorded in this match (Botafogo – Flamengo): shots 19–10, shots on target 9–4, expected goals 3.3–0.82, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Botafogo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Botafogo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.78 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.78 goals/match1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.61 corners/matchCornersBotafogo · Flamengo● 6.18 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricBotafogoFlamengoBaseline
Corners5.61 corners/match6.18 corners/match4.98 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots10 shotsBotafogo 19 shots, Flamengo 10 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots4 shotsBotafogo 9 shots, Flamengo 4 shots
  • Expected goals3.3 xG0.82 xGBotafogo 3.3 xG, Flamengo 0.82 xG
  • Possession54%46%Botafogo 54%, Flamengo 46%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersBotafogo 5 corners, Flamengo 2 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls7 foulsBotafogo 17 fouls, Flamengo 7 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Botafogo
0Draws
2Flamengo
Flamengo — Botafogo · Serie A0–2
Botafogo — Flamengo · Serie A1–2
Flamengo — Botafogo · Serie A2–3
Botafogo — Flamengo · Serie A0–1
Flamengo — Botafogo · Serie A0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Botafogo favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Flamengo in 2 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Botafogo23 matchesFlamengo22 matches
1.78 goals/match ▲Goals scored23/221.64 goals/match
1.04 goals/match ▲Goals allowed23/221.14 goals/match
1.42 xG/matchExpected goals23/221.37 xG/match
13.3 shots/matchShots23/2213.9 shots/match
5.35 shots/matchShots on target23/225.59 shots/match
51.3%Possession23/22● 53.5%
5.61 corners/matchCorners23/22● 6.18 corners/match
16.4 fouls/matchFouls23/2211.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples23 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 19 Aug 2024, 01:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBotafogoFlamengo
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024
Head-to-headBotafogo — Flamengo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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