PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Cruzeiro 1–1 Bahia · Serie A

1–1Historical match

Bahia

LWLWL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Cruzeiro and Bahia drew 1–1.

Shots
1110
Shots on target
34
Expected goals
1.231.29
Possession
49%51%

Full time

What the match recorded

Cruzeiro and Bahia drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Cruzeiro – Bahia): shots 11–10, shots on target 3–4, expected goals 1.23–1.29, possession 49%–51%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Cruzeiro's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cruzeiro's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.2 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots10 shotsCruzeiro 11 shots, Bahia 10 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots4 shotsCruzeiro 3 shots, Bahia 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.23 xG1.29 xGCruzeiro 1.23 xG, Bahia 1.29 xG
  • Possession49%51%Cruzeiro 49%, Bahia 51%
  • Corners5 corners7 cornersCruzeiro 5 corners, Bahia 7 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls8 foulsCruzeiro 10 fouls, Bahia 8 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Cruzeiro
1Draws
1Bahia
Bahia — Cruzeiro · Serie A4–1
Cruzeiro — Bahia · Serie A3–0
Bahia — Cruzeiro · Serie A2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cruzeiro favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Bahia in 4 · 5 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cruzeiro30 matchesBahia30 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲ 1.33 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed30/301.13 goals/match
1.05 xG/matchExpected goals30/30▲ 1.32 xG/match
12.9 shots/matchShots30/3012.9 shots/match
4.57 shots/matchShots on target30/304.57 shots/match
52.7%Possession30/30● 56.1%
5.47 corners/match ●Corners30/304.7 corners/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls30/3011.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 19 Oct 2024, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCruzeiroBahia
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024
Head-to-headCruzeiro — Bahia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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