PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Fluminense 2–2 Grêmio · Serie A

2–2Historical match

Grêmio

DWLLW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fluminense and Grêmio drew 2–2.

Shots
187
Shots on target
74
Expected goals
2.421.55
Possession
63%37%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fluminense and Grêmio drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Fluminense – Grêmio): shots 18–7, shots on target 7–4, expected goals 2.42–1.55, possession 63%–37%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fluminense's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fluminense's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.88 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match0.88 goals/match1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Fluminense have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.8% ●PossessionFluminense · Grêmio46.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFluminenseGrêmioBaseline
Possession54.8%46.2%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots7 shotsFluminense 18 shots, Grêmio 7 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots4 shotsFluminense 7 shots, Grêmio 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.42 xG1.55 xGFluminense 2.42 xG, Grêmio 1.55 xG
  • Possession63%37%Fluminense 63%, Grêmio 37%
  • Corners8 corners2 cornersFluminense 8 corners, Grêmio 2 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls14 foulsFluminense 15 fouls, Grêmio 14 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Fluminense
0Draws
3Grêmio
Grêmio — Fluminense · Serie A1–0
Fluminense — Grêmio · Serie A2–3
Grêmio — Fluminense · Serie A2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fluminense favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Grêmio in 4 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fluminense32 matchesGrêmio32 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored32/32▲ 1.19 goals/match
1.06 goals/match ▲Goals allowed32/321.28 goals/match
0.98 xG/matchExpected goals32/32▲ 1.2 xG/match
11.5 shots/matchShots32/3211.9 shots/match
4.16 shots/matchShots on target32/32▲ 4.47 shots/match
54.8% ●Possession32/3246.2%
4.25 corners/matchCorners32/32● 5.41 corners/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls32/3210.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 Nov 2024, 04:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFluminenseGrêmio
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024
Head-to-headFluminense — Grêmio
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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