PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Botafogo 2–1 Santos · Serie A

2–1Full-time analysis

Santos

DWLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Botafogo won 2–1.

Shots
1722
Shots on target
69
Expected goals
2.972.63
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

Botafogo beat Santos 2–1. Recorded in this match (Botafogo – Santos): shots 17–22, shots on target 6–9, expected goals 2.97–2.63, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Santos have a visible away split

moderate

Santos's away-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.8 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.8 shots/match12.3 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Botafogo's recent record differs from the season

weak

Botafogo's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots15 shots/match12.6 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots22 shotsBotafogo 17 shots, Santos 22 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots9 shotsBotafogo 6 shots, Santos 9 shots
  • Expected goals2.97 xG2.63 xGBotafogo 2.97 xG, Santos 2.63 xG
  • Possession48%52%Botafogo 48%, Santos 52%
  • Corners5 corners5 cornersBotafogo 5 corners, Santos 5 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls13 foulsBotafogo 10 fouls, Santos 13 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Botafogo
3Draws
0Santos
Botafogo — Santos · Serie A2–2
Santos — Botafogo · Serie A0–1
Botafogo — Santos · Serie A1–1
Santos — Botafogo · Serie A2–2
Botafogo — Santos · Serie A3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Botafogo favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Santos in 4 · 7 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Botafogo18 matchesSantos19 matches
1.83 goals/match ▲Goals scored18/191.42 goals/match
1.78 goals/matchGoals allowed18/19▲ 1.63 goals/match
1.31 xG/matchExpected goals15/151.37 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShots18/1912.3 shots/match
5.06 shots/match ▲Shots on target18/193.63 shots/match
47.1%Possession18/19● 48.5%
3.78 corners/matchCorners18/19● 5 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards3/43 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls18/1912.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples18 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 17 Jul 2026, 02:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBotafogoSantos
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headBotafogo — Santos
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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