PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Mirassol 2–1 Grêmio · Serie A

2–1Full-time analysis

Grêmio

DLDWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Mirassol won 2–1.

Shots
149
Shots on target
34
Expected goals
1.380.52
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

Mirassol beat Grêmio 2–1. Recorded in this match (Mirassol – Grêmio): shots 14–9, shots on target 3–4, expected goals 1.38–0.52, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Grêmio's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Grêmio's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8 shots/match11.1 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Grêmio have a visible away split

strong

Grêmio's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.2 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.2 shots/match11.1 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots9 shotsMirassol 14 shots, Grêmio 9 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots4 shotsMirassol 3 shots, Grêmio 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.38 xG0.52 xGMirassol 1.38 xG, Grêmio 0.52 xG
  • Possession44%56%Mirassol 44%, Grêmio 56%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersMirassol 5 corners, Grêmio 4 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls9 foulsMirassol 14 fouls, Grêmio 9 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Mirassol
0Draws
0Grêmio
Grêmio — Mirassol · Serie A0–1
Mirassol — Grêmio · Serie A4–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Mirassol favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Grêmio in 2 · 7 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Mirassol18 matchesGrêmio19 matches
1.11 goals/matchGoals scored18/191.11 goals/match
1.39 goals/matchGoals allowed18/19▲ 1.32 goals/match
1.03 xG/match ▲Expected goals15/150.81 xG/match
13.9 shots/match ▲Shots18/1911.1 shots/match
4.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target18/193.58 shots/match
51.1% ●Possession18/1949.7%
5.67 corners/match ●Corners18/193.89 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards3/42.5 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls18/1913.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples18 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Jul 2026, 03:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMirassolGrêmio
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headMirassol — Grêmio
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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