PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Krylya Sovetov Samara 2–1 Baltika Kaliningrad · Premier League

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Krylya Sovetov Samara won 2–1.

Shots
911
Shots on target
32
Expected goals
1.251.06
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Krylya Sovetov Samara beat Baltika Kaliningrad 2–1. Recorded in this match (Krylya Sovetov Samara – Baltika Kaliningrad): shots 9–11, shots on target 3–2, expected goals 1.25–1.06, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Baltika Kaliningrad's recent record differs from the season

weak

Baltika Kaliningrad's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match0.67 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots11 shotsKrylya Sovetov Samara 9 shots, Baltika Kaliningrad 11 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots2 shotsKrylya Sovetov Samara 3 shots, Baltika Kaliningrad 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.25 xG1.06 xGKrylya Sovetov Samara 1.25 xG, Baltika Kaliningrad 1.06 xG
  • Possession47%53%Krylya Sovetov Samara 47%, Baltika Kaliningrad 53%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersKrylya Sovetov Samara 3 corners, Baltika Kaliningrad 5 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls21 foulsKrylya Sovetov Samara 8 fouls, Baltika Kaliningrad 21 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Krylya Sovetov Samara favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Baltika Kaliningrad in 1 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Krylya Sovetov Samara6 matchesBaltika Kaliningrad6 matches
2.33 goals/match ▲Goals scored6/60.67 goals/match
1.5 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/61.67 goals/match
2.18 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/61.06 xG/match
12.3 shots/matchShots6/612.5 shots/match
5.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target6/64 shots/match
47%Possession6/6● 50.3%
5.33 corners/match ●Corners6/64.33 corners/match
8.5 fouls/matchFouls6/613.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 27 Aug 2023, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsKrylya Sovetov SamaraBaltika Kaliningrad
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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