PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Orenburg 1–2 Fakel Voronezh · Premier League

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fakel Voronezh won 1–2.

Shots
2513
Shots on target
87
Expected goals
2.32.54
Possession
72%28%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fakel Voronezh beat Orenburg 2–1. Recorded in this match (Orenburg – Fakel Voronezh): shots 25–13, shots on target 8–7, expected goals 2.3–2.54, possession 72%–28%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Orenburg's recent record differs from the season

weak

Orenburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.17 goals/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Orenburg have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.9% ●PossessionOrenburg · Fakel Voronezh43.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricOrenburgFakel VoronezhBaseline
Possession57.9%43.8%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots25 shots13 shotsOrenburg 25 shots, Fakel Voronezh 13 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots7 shotsOrenburg 8 shots, Fakel Voronezh 7 shots
  • Expected goals2.3 xG2.54 xGOrenburg 2.3 xG, Fakel Voronezh 2.54 xG
  • Possession72%28%Orenburg 72%, Fakel Voronezh 28%
  • Corners14 corners2 cornersOrenburg 14 corners, Fakel Voronezh 2 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls14 foulsOrenburg 11 fouls, Fakel Voronezh 14 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Orenburg
0Draws
0Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh — Orenburg · Premier League1–3
Orenburg — Fakel Voronezh · Premier League4–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Orenburg favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Fakel Voronezh in 4 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Orenburg12 matchesFakel Voronezh12 matches
1.17 goals/match ▲Goals scored12/120.75 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲ 1.25 goals/match
1.42 xG/match ▲Expected goals12/121.29 xG/match
13.4 shots/match ▲Shots12/1211.7 shots/match
4 shots/match ▲Shots on target12/123.75 shots/match
57.9% ●Possession12/1243.8%
5.83 corners/match ●Corners12/125.33 corners/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls12/1212.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOrenburgFakel Voronezh
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headOrenburg — Fakel Voronezh
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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