PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Baltika Kaliningrad 1–3 Lokomotiv Moscow · Premier League

1–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lokomotiv Moscow won 1–3.

Shots
2312
Shots on target
88
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lokomotiv Moscow beat Baltika Kaliningrad 3–1. Recorded in this match (Baltika Kaliningrad – Lokomotiv Moscow): shots 23–12, shots on target 8–8, possession 52%–48%, corners 7–1. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Baltika Kaliningrad's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Baltika Kaliningrad's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.1 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots23 shots12 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 23 shots, Lokomotiv Moscow 12 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots8 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 8 shots, Lokomotiv Moscow 8 shots
  • Possession52%48%Baltika Kaliningrad 52%, Lokomotiv Moscow 48%
  • Corners7 corners1 cornerBaltika Kaliningrad 7 corners, Lokomotiv Moscow 1 corner
  • Fouls12 fouls12 foulsBaltika Kaliningrad 12 fouls, Lokomotiv Moscow 12 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Baltika Kaliningrad
0Draws
1Lokomotiv Moscow
Lokomotiv Moscow — Baltika Kaliningrad · Premier League3–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Baltika Kaliningrad favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Lokomotiv Moscow in 8 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Baltika Kaliningrad30 matchesLokomotiv Moscow30 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲ 1.73 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed30/30▲ 1.27 goals/match
1.29 xG/matchExpected goals28/28▲ 1.58 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots30/30▲ 13.6 shots/match
3.7 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲ 4.97 shots/match
45.8%Possession30/30● 51.5%
4.9 corners/matchCorners30/30● 5.93 corners/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls30/3012.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 May 2024, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBaltika KaliningradLokomotiv Moscow
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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