PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Orenburg 1–2 FK Krasnodar · Premier League

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FK Krasnodar won 1–2.

Shots
1622
Shots on target
74
Expected goals
1.092.31
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

FK Krasnodar beat Orenburg 2–1. Recorded in this match (Orenburg – FK Krasnodar): shots 16–22, shots on target 7–4, expected goals 1.09–2.31, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FK Krasnodar's recent record differs from the season

weak

FK Krasnodar's last-five shots average is below their season average.

12 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots12 shots/match14.8 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots22 shotsOrenburg 16 shots, FK Krasnodar 22 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots4 shotsOrenburg 7 shots, FK Krasnodar 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.09 xG2.31 xGOrenburg 1.09 xG, FK Krasnodar 2.31 xG
  • Possession45%55%Orenburg 45%, FK Krasnodar 55%
  • Corners6 corners3 cornersOrenburg 6 corners, FK Krasnodar 3 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls11 foulsOrenburg 14 fouls, FK Krasnodar 11 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Orenburg
0Draws
4FK Krasnodar
FK Krasnodar — Orenburg · Premier League4–0
FK Krasnodar — Orenburg · Premier League2–1
Orenburg — FK Krasnodar · Premier League0–2
Orenburg — FK Krasnodar · Premier League5–1
FK Krasnodar — Orenburg · Premier League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Orenburg favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FK Krasnodar in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Orenburg29 matchesFK Krasnodar29 matches
0.86 goals/matchGoals scored29/29▲ 1.93 goals/match
1.79 goals/matchGoals allowed29/29▲ 0.79 goals/match
1.47 xG/matchExpected goals21/24▲ 1.91 xG/match
15.3 shots/matchShots22/2614.8 shots/match
4.36 shots/matchShots on target22/26▲ 5.04 shots/match
51%Possession22/26● 56.6%
7 corners/match ●Corners22/264.31 corners/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls22/2613.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 May 2025, 15:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOrenburgFK Krasnodar
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headOrenburg — FK Krasnodar
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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