PitchMath
Süper Lig · 2026

Erzurumspor FK 1–0 Samsunspor · Süper Lig

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Erzurumspor FK won 1–0.

Shots
88
Shots on target
22
Expected goals
0.770.4
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

Erzurumspor FK beat Samsunspor 1–0. Recorded in this match (Erzurumspor FK – Samsunspor): shots 8–8, shots on target 2–2, expected goals 0.77–0.4, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Samsunspor's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Samsunspor's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1 goal/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Erzurumspor FK have a visible home split

weak

Erzurumspor FK's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

10.7 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.7 shots/match9 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Samsunspor have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.8%PossessionErzurumspor FK · Samsunspor● 56.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricErzurumspor FKSamsunsporBaseline
Possession42.8%56.8%48.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots8 shotsErzurumspor FK 8 shots, Samsunspor 8 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots2 shotsErzurumspor FK 2 shots, Samsunspor 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.77 xG0.4 xGErzurumspor FK 0.77 xG, Samsunspor 0.4 xG
  • Possession42%58%Erzurumspor FK 42%, Samsunspor 58%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersErzurumspor FK 3 corners, Samsunspor 5 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls13 foulsErzurumspor FK 11 fouls, Samsunspor 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards2 cardsErzurumspor FK 3 cards, Samsunspor 2 cards
  • Passes414 passes583 passesErzurumspor FK 414 passes, Samsunspor 583 passes
  • Pass accuracy82.1%87%Erzurumspor FK 82.1%, Samsunspor 87%
  • Shots inside box6 shots2 shotsErzurumspor FK 6 shots, Samsunspor 2 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks0 blocksErzurumspor FK 2 blocks, Samsunspor 0 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves1 saveErzurumspor FK 2 saves, Samsunspor 1 save
  • Offsides0 offsides2 offsidesErzurumspor FK 0 offsides, Samsunspor 2 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Samed Onur · Samsunspor · 8′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSefa Akgün · Erzurumspor FK · 66′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNihad Mujakić · Erzurumspor FK · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedElisha Owusu · Erzurumspor FK · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCelil Yüksel · Samsunspor · 88′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMohamed Bayo · Samsunspor · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLogi Tomasson · Samsunspor · 63′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJosafat Mendes · Samsunspor · 69′ · 0.03 xG · on targetCelil Yüksel · Samsunspor · 55′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMartín Rodríguez · Erzurumspor FK · 41′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSamed Onur · Samsunspor · 52′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Diabaté · Erzurumspor FK · 71′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedEren Tozlu · Erzurumspor FK · 62′ · 0.14 xG · on targetMiguel Cardoso · Erzurumspor FK · 45′ · 0.15 xG · goalGabriele Guarino · Samsunspor · 15′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Diabaté · Erzurumspor FK · 79′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Erzurumspor FK: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.75 xG. Samsunspor: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.39 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Miguel Cardoso · Erzurumspor FK · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Erzurumspor FK 0.75 xG · Samsunspor 0.39 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Erzurumspor FK favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Samsunspor in 4 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Erzurumspor FK6 matchesSamsunspor6 matches
0.5 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲ 1 goal/match
1.83 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/62 goals/match
0.7 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲ 1.06 xG/match
9 shots/matchShots6/6▲ 13 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on target6/62.67 shots/match
42.8%Possession6/6● 56.8%
3.17 corners/matchCorners6/6● 3.83 corners/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls6/611.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Süper Lig

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsErzurumspor FKSamsunspor
CompetitionSüper Lig
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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