PitchMath
Belgian Pro League · 2025

FCV Dender 0–1 Oud-Heverlee Leuven · Belgian Pro League

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Oud-Heverlee Leuven won 0–1.

Shots
411
Shots on target
24
Expected goals
0.311.34
Possession
60%40%

Full time

What the match recorded

Oud-Heverlee Leuven beat FCV Dender 1–0. Recorded in this match (FCV Dender – Oud-Heverlee Leuven): shots 4–11, shots on target 2–4, expected goals 0.31–1.34, possession 60%–40%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FCV Dender show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

FCV Dender's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

7.6 shots/match ▲ShotsFCV Dender · Oud-Heverlee Leuven10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFCV DenderOud-Heverlee LeuvenBaseline
Shots7.6 shots/match10.3 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against12.4 shots/match11.5 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Oud-Heverlee Leuven have a visible away split

weak

Oud-Heverlee Leuven's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.25 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.25 shots/match10.3 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Oud-Heverlee Leuven's recent record differs from the season

weak

Oud-Heverlee Leuven's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1 goal/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots4 shots11 shotsFCV Dender 4 shots, Oud-Heverlee Leuven 11 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots4 shotsFCV Dender 2 shots, Oud-Heverlee Leuven 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.31 xG1.34 xGFCV Dender 0.31 xG, Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1.34 xG
  • Possession60%40%FCV Dender 60%, Oud-Heverlee Leuven 40%
  • Corners4 corners6 cornersFCV Dender 4 corners, Oud-Heverlee Leuven 6 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls14 foulsFCV Dender 8 fouls, Oud-Heverlee Leuven 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ewoud Pletinckx · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 37′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedYoussef Maziz · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 74′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAbdoul Karim Traoré · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRagnar Oratmangoen · FCV Dender · 34′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLuc Marijnissen · FCV Dender · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJovan Mijatović · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 49′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedNoah Mbamba · FCV Dender · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedTakuma Ominami · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 49′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedSiebe Schrijvers · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 4′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLuc De Fougerolles · FCV Dender · 30′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedCasper Terho · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 16′ · 0.16 xG · on targetAbdoul Karim Traoré · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 41′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedAbdoul Karim Traoré · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 25′ · 0.20 xG · on targetAbdoul Karim Traoré · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 57′ · 0.23 xG · on targetEwoud Pletinckx · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 71′ · 0.23 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FCV Dender: 4 shots, 2 on target, 0.33 xG. Oud-Heverlee Leuven: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.40 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Ewoud Pletinckx · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 71′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FCV Dender 0.33 xG · Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1.40 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1FCV Dender
2Draws
1Oud-Heverlee Leuven
FCV Dender — Oud-Heverlee Leuven · Belgian Pro League5–0
Oud-Heverlee Leuven — FCV Dender · Belgian Pro League4–4
Oud-Heverlee Leuven — FCV Dender · Belgian Pro League3–2
FCV Dender — Oud-Heverlee Leuven · Belgian Pro League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FCV Dender favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Oud-Heverlee Leuven in 8 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FCV Dender5 matchesOud-Heverlee Leuven6 matches
0.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/6▲ 1 goal/match
1.2 goals/match ▲Goals allowed5/62 goals/match
0.73 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲ 0.89 xG/match
7.6 shots/matchShots5/6▲ 10.3 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/6▲ 3.17 shots/match
51.4% ●Possession5/641.7%
2.4 corners/matchCorners5/6● 5.33 corners/match
9.4 fouls/matchFouls5/614.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 24 Aug 2025, 21:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Belgian Pro League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFCV DenderOud-Heverlee Leuven
CompetitionBelgian Pro LeagueBelgian Pro League 2025/26
Head-to-headFCV Dender — Oud-Heverlee Leuven
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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