Primeira Liga · 2025Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 15:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

AVS - Futebol SAD

DLLWL

0–0Full-time recap

CF Estrela Amadora

LDWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	AVS - Futebol SAD	CF Estrela Amadora
Shots	11 shots/match	16 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.78 xG/match▲	0.68 xG/match
Possession	40%	60%●
Corners	7 corners/match	9 corners/match●
Fouls	17 fouls/match	9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

AVS - Futebol SAD: 11 shots, 3 on target, 0.78 xG. CF Estrela Amadora: 16 shots, 6 on target, 0.66 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: AVS - Futebol SAD 0.78 xG · CF Estrela Amadora 0.66 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: CF Estrela Amadora's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: CF Estrela Amadora's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

CF Estrela Amadora's recent record differs from the season

moderate

CF Estrela Amadora's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.12 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.4 goals/match	1.12 goals/match	1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

CF Estrela Amadora have a visible away split

moderate

CF Estrela Amadora's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.46 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	8.46 shots/match	11 shots/match	12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

CF Estrela Amadora have recorded the higher season possession share.

40.8%PossessionAVS - Futebol SAD · CF Estrela Amadora●49%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.1 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	AVS - Futebol SAD	CF Estrela Amadora	Baseline
Possession	40.8%	49%	49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1AVS - Futebol SAD

1Draws

1CF Estrela Amadora

27 Sept 2025CF Estrela Amadora — AVS - Futebol SAD · Primeira Liga3–0

11 May 2025CF Estrela Amadora — AVS - Futebol SAD · Primeira Liga0–1

28 Dec 2024AVS - Futebol SAD — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

AVS - Futebol SAD favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · CF Estrela Amadora in 9 · 4 too close

0.75 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 24/26▲1.12 goals/match

2.38 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 24/26▲1.58 goals/match

0.9 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 24/24▲1.13 xG/match

1.83 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 24/24▲1.57 xG/match

10.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 24/2611 shots/match

14.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 24/26▲13.2 shots/match

2.96 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 24/26▲3.77 shots/match

5.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 24/26▲4.54 shots/match

40.8%Possessionseason · 24/26●49%

3.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/26●3.73 corners/match

5.75 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 24/265.54 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/242.75 cards/match

13.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2614.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

8%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/26▲31%

46%Scoring frequencyseason · 24/26▲54%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

AVS - Futebol SAD5.3

CF Estrela Amadora39.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

AVS - Futebol SAD15.8

CF Estrela Amadora43

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

AVS - Futebol SAD10.5

CF Estrela Amadora44.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

AVS - Futebol SAD68.4

CF Estrela Amadora34.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

AVS - Futebol SAD52.6

CF Estrela Amadora64.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

AVS - Futebol SAD18.4

CF Estrela Amadora34.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

AVS - Futebol SAD28.3

CF Estrela Amadora48.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

AVS - Futebol SAD24 matchesCF Estrela Amadora26 matches

0.75 goals/matchGoals scored24/26▲1.12 goals/match

2.38 goals/matchGoals allowed24/26▲1.58 goals/match

0.9 xG/matchExpected goals24/24▲1.13 xG/match

10.7 shots/matchShots24/2611 shots/match

2.96 shots/matchShots on target24/26▲3.77 shots/match

40.8%Possession24/26●49%

3.67 corners/matchCorners24/26●3.73 corners/match

—Cards0/242.75 cards/match

13.9 fouls/matchFouls24/2614.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

AVS - Futebol SAD13 matchesCF Estrela Amadora13 matches

0.77 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲0.92 goals/match

1.77 goals/matchGoals allowed13/131.69 goals/match

0.91 xG/match▲Expected goals13/120.78 xG/match

11.3 shots/match▲Shots13/138.46 shots/match

3.54 shots/matchShots on target13/133.54 shots/match

40.8%Possession13/13●44.5%

3.62 corners/match●Corners13/133.31 corners/match

—Cards0/122.58 cards/match

14.5 fouls/matchFouls13/1315.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.78 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples24 / 26home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4