PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Fri, 17 Apr 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Rio Ave

WWWLW
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRio AveAVS - Futebol SAD
Shots20 shots/match▲13 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Expected goals2.36 xG/match▲1.6 xG/match
Possession66%●34%
Corners4 corners/match9 corners/match●
Fouls9 fouls/match11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Pedro Lima · AVS - Futebol SAD · 3′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPedro Lima · AVS - Futebol SAD · 60′ · 0.01 xG · on targetRafael Lobato · Rio Ave · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedOle Pohlmann · Rio Ave · 18′ · 0.02 xG · goalJalen Blesa · Rio Ave · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTunde Akinsola · AVS - Futebol SAD · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarios Vrousai · Rio Ave · 40′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDario Špikić · Rio Ave · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTunde Akinsola · AVS - Futebol SAD · 61′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedÓscar Perea · AVS - Futebol SAD · 25′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDiogo Bezerra · Rio Ave · 54′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Ndoj · Rio Ave · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTunde Akinsola · AVS - Futebol SAD · 1′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTomané · AVS - Futebol SAD · 7′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarios Vrousai · Rio Ave · 75′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJalen Blesa · Rio Ave · 55′ · 0.06 xG · on targetPedro Lima · AVS - Futebol SAD · 67′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedOle Pohlmann · Rio Ave · 30′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDario Špikić · Rio Ave · 36′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDiogo Bezerra · Rio Ave · 8′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Ndoj · Rio Ave · 23′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDario Špikić · Rio Ave · 37′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDario Špikić · Rio Ave · 66′ · 0.10 xG · on targetPedro Lima · AVS - Futebol SAD · 84′ · 0.10 xG · on targetDiogo Bezerra · Rio Ave · 47′ · 0.12 xG · on targetDiego Duarte · AVS - Futebol SAD · 90′ · 0.12 xG · on targetTunde Akinsola · AVS - Futebol SAD · 78′ · 0.15 xG · on targetTamblé Monteiro · Rio Ave · 80′ · 0.26 xG · on targetJalen Blesa · Rio Ave · 27′ · 0.28 xG · on targetDiogo Bezerra · Rio Ave · 27′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blockedPedro Lima · AVS - Futebol SAD · 68′ · 0.47 xG · goalTomané · AVS - Futebol SAD · 32′ · 0.51 xG · goalAndreas Ndoj · Rio Ave · 79′ · 0.63 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rio Ave: 20 shots, 8 on target, 2.41 xG. AVS - Futebol SAD: 13 shots, 7 on target, 1.58 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Ole Pohlmann · Rio Ave · 18′Andreas Ndoj · Rio Ave · 79′Tomané · AVS - Futebol SAD · 32′Pedro Lima · AVS - Futebol SAD · 68′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rio Ave 2.41 xG · AVS - Futebol SAD 1.58 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rio Ave's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Rio Ave's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rio Ave's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.16 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.16 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Rio Ave
1Draws
1AVS - Futebol SAD
AVS - Futebol SAD — Rio Ave · Primeira Liga1–2
Rio Ave — AVS - Futebol SAD · Primeira Liga1–1
AVS - Futebol SAD — Rio Ave · Primeira Liga1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Rio Ave favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · AVS - Futebol SAD in 1 · 5 too close

1.16 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 32/300.7 goals/match
1.66 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 32/302.13 goals/match
1.1 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 31/300.87 xG/match
1.57 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 31/301.78 xG/match
11 shots/matchShotsseason · 32/3010.9 shots/match
15.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 32/3014.8 shots/match
4.22 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 32/303.03 shots/match
5.38 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 32/305.33 shots/match
48.3%●Possessionseason · 32/3040.3%
4.41 corners/match●Cornersseason · 32/303.77 corners/match
6.56 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 32/30▲5.67 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCardsseason · 24/0—
13.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/3014 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
16%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/3013%
66%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 32/3043%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rio Ave34.2
AVS - Futebol SAD2.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rio Ave48.2
AVS - Futebol SAD16.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rio Ave11.4
AVS - Futebol SAD7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rio Ave34.2
AVS - Futebol SAD76.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rio Ave46.4
AVS - Futebol SAD55.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rio Ave50
AVS - Futebol SAD21.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rio Ave44.7
AVS - Futebol SAD30.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Rio Ave32 matchesAVS - Futebol SAD30 matches
1.16 goals/match▲Goals scored32/300.7 goals/match
1.66 goals/match▲Goals allowed32/302.13 goals/match
1.1 xG/match▲Expected goals31/300.87 xG/match
11 shots/matchShots32/3010.9 shots/match
4.22 shots/match▲Shots on target32/303.03 shots/match
48.3%●Possession32/3040.3%
4.41 corners/match●Corners32/303.77 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards24/0—
13.1 fouls/matchFouls32/3014 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Rio Ave16 matchesAVS - Futebol SAD15 matches
1.13 goals/match▲Goals scored16/150.67 goals/match
1.69 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/152.6 goals/match
1.38 xG/match▲Expected goals16/150.86 xG/match
12.6 shots/match▲Shots16/1510.3 shots/match
4.56 shots/match▲Shots on target16/152.6 shots/match
50.1%●Possession16/1539.7%
4.81 corners/match●Corners16/153.8 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards12/0—
12.5 fouls/matchFouls16/1513.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.22 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples32 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 17 Apr 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRio AveAVS - Futebol SAD
CompetitionPrimeira Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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