PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025

AVS - Futebol SAD 3–1 FC Porto · Primeira Liga

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

AVS - Futebol SAD won 3–1.

Shots
920
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
0.753.06
Possession
31%69%

Full time

What the match recorded

AVS - Futebol SAD beat FC Porto 3–1. Recorded in this match (AVS - Futebol SAD – FC Porto): shots 9–20, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 0.75–3.06, possession 31%–69%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

AVS - Futebol SAD's recent record differs from the season

moderate

AVS - Futebol SAD's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.82 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match0.82 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Porto show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

FC Porto's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.1 shots/match ▲ShotsAVS - Futebol SAD · FC Porto14.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAVS - Futebol SADFC PortoBaseline
Shots11.1 shots/match14.7 shots/match11.6 shots/match
Shots against15.5 shots/match9.43 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

FC Porto have recorded the higher season possession share.

39.3%PossessionAVS - Futebol SAD · FC Porto● 56%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAVS - Futebol SADFC PortoBaseline
Possession39.3%56%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots20 shotsAVS - Futebol SAD 9 shots, FC Porto 20 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shotsAVS - Futebol SAD 5 shots, FC Porto 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.75 xG3.06 xGAVS - Futebol SAD 0.75 xG, FC Porto 3.06 xG
  • Possession31%69%AVS - Futebol SAD 31%, FC Porto 69%
  • Corners3 corners7 cornersAVS - Futebol SAD 3 corners, FC Porto 7 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls9 foulsAVS - Futebol SAD 7 fouls, FC Porto 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Diego Duarte · AVS - Futebol SAD · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPedro Lima · AVS - Futebol SAD · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRoni · AVS - Futebol SAD · 58′ · 0.02 xG · goalRodrigo Mora · FC Porto · 20′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDominik Prpić · FC Porto · 39′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedThiago Silva · FC Porto · 87′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Mora · FC Porto · 62′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAlan Varela · FC Porto · 8′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSeko Fofana · FC Porto · 9′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Gül · FC Porto · 18′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRoni · AVS - Futebol SAD · 23′ · 0.05 xG · goalRoni · AVS - Futebol SAD · 23′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Mora · FC Porto · 39′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDiego Duarte · AVS - Futebol SAD · 77′ · 0.05 xG · on targetGabri Veiga · FC Porto · 85′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAlberto Costa · FC Porto · 67′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedOskar Pietuszewski · FC Porto · 85′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedWilliam Gomes · FC Porto · 87′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPedro Lima · AVS - Futebol SAD · 44′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedBorja Sainz · FC Porto · 45′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Mora · FC Porto · 51′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedAderllan Santos · AVS - Futebol SAD · 80′ · 0.13 xG · goalAlberto Costa · FC Porto · 82′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedBorja Sainz · FC Porto · 4′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedSeko Fofana · FC Porto · 36′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedAlberto Costa · FC Porto · 64′ · 0.20 xG · on targetPaulo Vitor · AVS - Futebol SAD · 23′ · 0.32 xG · on targetDeniz Gül · FC Porto · 63′ · 0.53 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

AVS - Futebol SAD: 9 shots, 5 on target, 0.76 xG. FC Porto: 19 shots, 3 on target, 2.04 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Roni · AVS - Futebol SAD · 23′Roni · AVS - Futebol SAD · 58′Aderllan Santos · AVS - Futebol SAD · 80′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: AVS - Futebol SAD 0.76 xG · FC Porto 2.04 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0AVS - Futebol SAD
0Draws
3FC Porto
FC Porto — AVS - Futebol SAD · Primeira Liga2–0
FC Porto — AVS - Futebol SAD · Primeira Liga2–0
AVS - Futebol SAD — FC Porto · Primeira Liga0–5

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: AVS - Futebol SAD favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Porto in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

AVS - Futebol SAD33 matchesFC Porto35 matches
0.82 goals/matchGoals scored33/35▲ 1.94 goals/match
2.03 goals/matchGoals allowed33/35▲ 0.6 goals/match
0.91 xG/matchExpected goals33/34▲ 1.88 xG/match
11.1 shots/matchShots33/35▲ 14.7 shots/match
3.12 shots/matchShots on target33/35▲ 5.14 shots/match
39.3%Possession33/35● 56%
3.7 corners/matchCorners33/35● 5.66 corners/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls33/3513.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples33 / 35home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 May 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAVS - Futebol SADFC Porto
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headAVS - Futebol SAD — FC Porto
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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