Primeira Liga · 2025Sat, 16 May 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Moreirense

DWLWL

0–0Full-time recap

AVS - Futebol SAD

DDDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Moreirense	AVS - Futebol SAD
Shots	13 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	0.96 xG/match	2.03 xG/match▲
Possession	64%●	36%
Corners	5 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Moreirense: 13 shots, 4 on target, 0.96 xG. AVS - Futebol SAD: 7 shots, 0 on target, 1.04 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Moreirense 0.96 xG · AVS - Futebol SAD 1.04 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: AVS - Futebol SAD's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Moreirense have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

AVS - Futebol SAD's recent record differs from the season

moderate

AVS - Futebol SAD's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.79 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	0.79 goals/match	1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Moreirense have recorded the higher season possession share.

50.2%●PossessionMoreirense · AVS - Futebol SAD39.2%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.0 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Moreirense	AVS - Futebol SAD	Baseline
Possession	50.2%	39.2%	50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Moreirense

1Draws

0AVS - Futebol SAD

3 Jan 2026AVS - Futebol SAD — Moreirense · Primeira Liga0–2

17 May 2025AVS - Futebol SAD — Moreirense · Primeira Liga0–3

4 Jan 2025Moreirense — AVS - Futebol SAD · Primeira Liga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Moreirense favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · AVS - Futebol SAD in 1 · 3 too close

1.08 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 36/340.79 goals/match

1.36 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 36/341.97 goals/match

0.91 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 35/340.95 xG/match

1.54 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 35/341.84 xG/match

9.06 shots/matchShotsseason · 36/34▲11 shots/match

12.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 36/3415.4 shots/match

3.31 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 36/343.06 shots/match

4.42 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 36/345.35 shots/match

50.2%●Possessionseason · 36/3439.2%

3.69 corners/match●Cornersseason · 36/343.68 corners/match

4.64 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 36/345.85 corners/match

2.81 cards/matchCardsseason · 26/0—

13.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 36/3413.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

31%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 36/3415%

67%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 36/3447%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Moreirense50

AVS - Futebol SAD2.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Moreirense21.1

AVS - Futebol SAD20.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Moreirense49.1

AVS - Futebol SAD3.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Moreirense2.6

AVS - Futebol SAD86.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Moreirense54.2

AVS - Futebol SAD57.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Moreirense21.1

AVS - Futebol SAD10.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Moreirense25

AVS - Futebol SAD30.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Moreirense36 matchesAVS - Futebol SAD34 matches

1.08 goals/match▲Goals scored36/340.79 goals/match

1.36 goals/match▲Goals allowed36/341.97 goals/match

0.91 xG/matchExpected goals35/340.95 xG/match

9.06 shots/matchShots36/34▲11 shots/match

3.31 shots/match▲Shots on target36/343.06 shots/match

50.2%●Possession36/3439.2%

3.69 corners/match●Corners36/343.68 corners/match

2.81 cards/matchCards26/0—

13.8 fouls/matchFouls36/3413.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Moreirense18 matchesAVS - Futebol SAD17 matches

1.11 goals/match▲Goals scored18/170.71 goals/match

1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/172.35 goals/match

0.82 xG/matchExpected goals18/17▲0.98 xG/match

9.5 shots/matchShots18/17▲10.6 shots/match

3.17 shots/match▲Shots on target18/172.53 shots/match

50.8%●Possession18/1739%

4.06 corners/match●Corners18/173.88 corners/match

2.83 cards/matchCards12/0—

13.5 fouls/matchFouls18/1713.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.9 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples36 / 34home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 16 May 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4