PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023

RC Lens 2–1 Toulouse · Ligue 1

RC Lens

LDLLL
2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

RC Lens won 2–1.

Shots
277
Shots on target
72
Expected goals
2.50.37
Possession
61%39%

Full time

What the match recorded

RC Lens beat Toulouse 2–1. Recorded in this match (RC Lens – Toulouse): shots 27–7, shots on target 7–2, expected goals 2.5–0.37, possession 61%–39%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

RC Lens have a visible home split

weak

RC Lens's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

24.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season17.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots24.3 shots/match17.5 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

RC Lens show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

RC Lens's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.5 shots/match ▲ShotsRC Lens · Toulouse8.33 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRC LensToulouseBaseline
Shots17.5 shots/match8.33 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots against10.5 shots/match17 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

RC Lens's recent record differs from the season

weak

RC Lens's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1 goal/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots27 shots7 shotsRC Lens 27 shots, Toulouse 7 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots2 shotsRC Lens 7 shots, Toulouse 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.5 xG0.37 xGRC Lens 2.5 xG, Toulouse 0.37 xG
  • Possession61%39%RC Lens 61%, Toulouse 39%
  • Corners9 corners4 cornersRC Lens 9 corners, Toulouse 4 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls15 foulsRC Lens 16 fouls, Toulouse 15 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Salis Abdul Samed · RC Lens · 43′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · RC Lens · 2′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndy Diouf · RC Lens · 8′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCésar Gelabert · Toulouse · 26′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFacundo Medina · RC Lens · 46′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDeiver Machado · RC Lens · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Sotoca · RC Lens · 19′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · RC Lens · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLogan Costa · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · RC Lens · 24′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Sotoca · RC Lens · 58′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · RC Lens · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNeil El Aynaoui · RC Lens · 83′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNiklas Schmidt · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAndy Diouf · RC Lens · 20′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDeiver Machado · RC Lens · 74′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · RC Lens · 2′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRuben Aguilar · RC Lens · 52′ · 0.06 xG · on targetWesley Saïd · RC Lens · 59′ · 0.06 xG · on targetVincent Sierro · Toulouse · 89′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · RC Lens · 2′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Diarra · Toulouse · 10′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedCésar Gelabert · Toulouse · 33′ · 0.09 xG · goalFlorian Sotoca · RC Lens · 44′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedSalis Abdul Samed · RC Lens · 60′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRuben Aguilar · RC Lens · 13′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAndy Diouf · RC Lens · 43′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedKevin Danso · RC Lens · 53′ · 0.10 xG · on targetRuben Aguilar · RC Lens · 20′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Guilavogui · RC Lens · 84′ · 0.22 xG · goalElye Wahi · RC Lens · 86′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · RC Lens · 50′ · 0.28 xG · on targetWesley Saïd · RC Lens · 45′ · 0.35 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

RC Lens: 27 shots, 7 on target, 2.48 xG. Toulouse: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.36 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Wesley Saïd · RC Lens · 45′Morgan Guilavogui · RC Lens · 84′César Gelabert · Toulouse · 33′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: RC Lens 2.48 xG · Toulouse 0.36 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2RC Lens
0Draws
0Toulouse
Toulouse — RC Lens · Ligue 10–1
RC Lens — Toulouse · Ligue 13–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: RC Lens favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Toulouse in 3 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

RC Lens6 matchesToulouse6 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored6/61 goal/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲ 1.33 goals/match
1.22 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/60.76 xG/match
17.5 shots/match ▲Shots6/68.33 shots/match
4.67 shots/match ▲Shots on target6/63 shots/match
53.3% ●Possession6/642.8%
7.33 corners/match ●Corners6/63 corners/match
15 fouls/matchFouls6/614 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 24 Sept 2023, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRC LensToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2023/24
Head-to-headRC Lens — Toulouse
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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