PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023Sun, 1 Oct 2023, 18:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

Nantes

LDDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricStade RennaisNantes
Shots16 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals2.68 xG/match▲1 xG/match
Possession59%●41%
Corners6 corners/match●4 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match17 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Amine Gouiri · Stade Rennais · 29′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAugusto Douglas · Nantes · 69′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedQuentin Merlin · Nantes · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Blas · Stade Rennais · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Bourigeaud · Stade Rennais · 26′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFlorent Mollet · Nantes · 28′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAmine Gouiri · Stade Rennais · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFlorent Mollet · Nantes · 8′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBertuğ Yıldırım · Stade Rennais · 29′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMoses Simon · Nantes · 50′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAbdoul Kader Bamba · Nantes · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAmine Gouiri · Stade Rennais · 13′ · 0.05 xG · on targetBenjamin Bourigeaud · Stade Rennais · 32′ · 0.05 xG · on targetFlorent Mollet · Nantes · 13′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Stade Rennais · 73′ · 0.07 xG · goalArthur Theate · Stade Rennais · 67′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMoses Simon · Nantes · 42′ · 0.09 xG · on targetAmine Gouiri · Stade Rennais · 19′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedArthur Theate · Stade Rennais · 65′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Bourigeaud · Stade Rennais · 64′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Sissoko · Nantes · 90′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedBertuğ Yıldırım · Stade Rennais · 55′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedAmine Gouiri · Stade Rennais · 80′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedPedro Chirivella · Nantes · 45′ · 0.47 xG · goalBenjamin Bourigeaud · Stade Rennais · 6′ · 0.82 xG · goalArnaud Kalimuendo · Stade Rennais · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Stade Rennais: 16 shots, 5 on target, 2.76 xG. Nantes: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.98 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Benjamin Bourigeaud · Stade Rennais · 6′Désiré Doué · Stade Rennais · 73′Arnaud Kalimuendo · Stade Rennais · 90′Pedro Chirivella · Nantes · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stade Rennais 2.76 xG · Nantes 0.98 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nantes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Stade Rennais's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Nantes's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nantes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.71 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Stade Rennais show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Stade Rennais's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.4 shots/match▲ShotsStade Rennais · Nantes10.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricStade RennaisNantesBaseline
Shots15.4 shots/match10.4 shots/match13.6 shots/match
Shots against11 shots/match17.4 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Stade Rennais have a visible home split

weak

Stade Rennais's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season15.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18.5 shots/match15.4 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Stade Rennais
0Draws
1Nantes
Nantes — Stade Rennais · Ligue 10–1
Stade Rennais — Nantes · Ligue 13–0
Nantes — Stade Rennais · Ligue 12–1
Stade Rennais — Nantes · Ligue 11–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Stade Rennais favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Nantes in 1 · 2 too close

1.86 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/71.71 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 7/72 goals/match
1.86 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 7/71.13 xG/match
0.96 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 7/72.17 xG/match
15.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 7/710.4 shots/match
11 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/717.4 shots/match
6.43 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 7/74.29 shots/match
3.57 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/76.71 shots/match
57.4%●Possessionseason · 7/740.4%
4.43 corners/match●Cornersseason · 7/73.71 corners/match
4.71 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/76.14 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/712.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/714%
71%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/7▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Stade Rennais86.1
Nantes8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Stade Rennais85.2
Nantes48.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Stade Rennais78.7
Nantes10.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Stade Rennais63.9
Nantes47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Stade Rennais16.7
Nantes47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Stade Rennais50
Nantes27.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Stade Rennais59.7
Nantes36.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Stade Rennais7 matchesNantes7 matches
1.86 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.71 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72 goals/match
1.86 xG/match▲Expected goals7/71.13 xG/match
15.4 shots/match▲Shots7/710.4 shots/match
6.43 shots/match▲Shots on target7/74.29 shots/match
57.4%●Possession7/740.4%
4.43 corners/match●Corners7/73.71 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.1 fouls/matchFouls7/712.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Stade Rennais4 matchesNantes3 matches
3 goals/match▲Goals scored4/30.67 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/31.67 goals/match
2.61 xG/match▲Expected goals4/30.91 xG/match
18.5 shots/match▲Shots4/310.7 shots/match
7.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/34 shots/match
59.3%●Possession4/341.3%
5.25 corners/match●Corners4/34 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
8.5 fouls/matchFouls4/316 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.16 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Oct 2023, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsStade RennaisNantes
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Stade Rennais vs Nantes — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath