PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023Fri, 20 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

RC Lens

LLWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLe HavreRC Lens
Shots14 shots/match▲13 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.64 xG/match1.64 xG/match
Possession39%61%●
Corners3 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Daler Kuzyaev · Le Havre · 16′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAngelo Fulgini · RC Lens · 90′ · 0.01 xG · on targetEmmanuel Sabbi · Le Havre · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · RC Lens · 80′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNabil Alioui · Le Havre · 48′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Bayo · Le Havre · 50′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNabil Alioui · Le Havre · 14′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAndy Diouf · RC Lens · 42′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Bayo · Le Havre · 53′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Sotoca · RC Lens · 66′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedArouna Sangante · Le Havre · 39′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLoic Négo · Le Havre · 71′ · 0.06 xG · on targetFlorian Sotoca · RC Lens · 73′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAngelo Fulgini · RC Lens · 72′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · RC Lens · 31′ · 0.08 xG · on targetMohamed Bayo · Le Havre · 35′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAndy Diouf · RC Lens · 4′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedPrzemysław Frankowski · RC Lens · 7′ · 0.12 xG · on targetLoic Négo · Le Havre · 71′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Bayo · Le Havre · 25′ · 0.15 xG · on targetAdrien Thomasson · RC Lens · 24′ · 0.16 xG · on targetKevin Danso · RC Lens · 86′ · 0.23 xG · on targetWesley Saïd · RC Lens · 4′ · 0.24 xG · on targetMohamed Bayo · Le Havre · 60′ · 0.24 xG · on targetMohamed Bayo · Le Havre · 71′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blockedEmmanuel Sabbi · Le Havre · 38′ · 0.46 xG · on targetNeil El Aynaoui · RC Lens · 89′ · 0.47 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Le Havre: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.72 xG. RC Lens: 13 shots, 7 on target, 1.65 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Le Havre 1.72 xG · RC Lens 1.65 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Le Havre's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: RC Lens's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Le Havre's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Le Havre's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.11 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.11 goals/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

RC Lens have a visible away split

moderate

RC Lens's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.8 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season15.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match15.7 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Le Havre show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Le Havre's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.7 shots/match▲ShotsLe Havre · RC Lens15.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLe HavreRC LensBaseline
Shots10.7 shots/match15.7 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against14.7 shots/match10.3 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Le Havre favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · RC Lens in 8 · 2 too close

1.11 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 9/90.89 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 9/91.44 goals/match
1.05 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 9/9▲1.3 xG/match
1.63 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 9/9▲1.19 xG/match
10.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 9/9▲15.7 shots/match
14.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 9/9▲10.3 shots/match
3.22 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 9/9▲4.67 shots/match
5.56 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 9/9▲4.44 shots/match
40.7%Possessionseason · 9/9●53%
3.11 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/9●6.44 corners/match
4.22 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 9/9▲3.44 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
13.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/914 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/922%
56%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/9▲67%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Le Havre8.3
RC Lens69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Le Havre23.2
RC Lens50.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Le Havre36.1
RC Lens51
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Le Havre47.2
RC Lens86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Le Havre63.9
RC Lens72.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Le Havre13.9
RC Lens91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Le Havre29.2
RC Lens74.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Le Havre9 matchesRC Lens9 matches
1.11 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.89 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.44 goals/match
1.05 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲1.3 xG/match
10.7 shots/matchShots9/9▲15.7 shots/match
3.22 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲4.67 shots/match
40.7%Possession9/9●53%
3.11 corners/matchCorners9/9●6.44 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.8 fouls/matchFouls9/914 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Le Havre5 matchesRC Lens5 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
1.4 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.84 xG/match
12.6 shots/match▲Shots5/510.8 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match
41.4%Possession5/5●49.4%
4 corners/matchCorners5/5●4.2 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
15.4 fouls/matchFouls5/513.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

12.3 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/112.2 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 20 Oct 2023, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLe HavreRC Lens
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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