PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023

Nice 1–0 Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 1

Nice

WWWDW
1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Nice won 1–0.

Shots
109
Shots on target
21
Expected goals
0.571.07
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nice beat Olympique de Marseille 1–0. Recorded in this match (Nice – Olympique de Marseille): shots 10–9, shots on target 2–1, expected goals 0.57–1.07, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Olympique de Marseille's recent record differs from the season

weak

Olympique de Marseille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.33 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots9 shotsNice 10 shots, Olympique de Marseille 9 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots1 shotNice 2 shots, Olympique de Marseille 1 shot
  • Expected goals0.57 xG1.07 xGNice 0.57 xG, Olympique de Marseille 1.07 xG
  • Possession50%50%Nice 50%, Olympique de Marseille 50%
  • Corners4 corners2 cornersNice 4 corners, Olympique de Marseille 2 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls6 foulsNice 13 fouls, Olympique de Marseille 6 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Melvin Bard · Nice · 4′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTerem Moffi · Nice · 40′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGaëtan Laborde · Nice · 55′ · 0.01 xG · on targetEvann Guessand · Nice · 82′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRenan Lodi · Olympique de Marseille · 83′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTerem Moffi · Nice · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAzzedine Ounahi · Olympique de Marseille · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Olympique de Marseille · 34′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYoussouf Ndayishimiye · Nice · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIliman Ndiaye · Olympique de Marseille · 34′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Sanson · Nice · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedIliman Ndiaye · Olympique de Marseille · 2′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedGaëtan Laborde · Nice · 50′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedIsmaïla Sarr · Olympique de Marseille · 61′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAmine Harit · Olympique de Marseille · 62′ · 0.08 xG · on targetGaëtan Laborde · Nice · 71′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedIliman Ndiaye · Olympique de Marseille · 89′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedEvann Guessand · Nice · 79′ · 0.22 xG · goalPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Olympique de Marseille · 73′ · 0.53 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nice: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.54 xG. Olympique de Marseille: 9 shots, 1 on target, 1.06 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Evann Guessand · Nice · 79′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nice 0.54 xG · Olympique de Marseille 1.06 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Nice
1Draws
2Olympique de Marseille
Olympique de Marseille — Nice · Ligue 11–3
Nice — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 10–3
Olympique de Marseille — Nice · Ligue 12–1
Nice — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 11–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nice favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Olympique de Marseille in 3 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nice9 matchesOlympique de Marseille9 matches
1.11 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲ 1.33 goals/match
0.44 goals/match ▲Goals allowed9/91.33 goals/match
1.38 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲ 1.74 xG/match
13.6 shots/matchShots9/9▲ 15.3 shots/match
4.78 shots/matchShots on target9/94.56 shots/match
52.2% ●Possession9/950.8%
4.78 corners/matchCorners9/9● 5.56 corners/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls9/99.22 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Oct 2023, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNiceOlympique de Marseille
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2023/24
Head-to-headNice — Olympique de Marseille
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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