PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023Sun, 29 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTCFull timeHistorical match
3–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMontpellierToulouse
Shots19 shots/match▲17 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Expected goals3.07 xG/match▲1.24 xG/match
Possession39%61%●
Corners3 corners/match4 corners/match●
Fouls13 fouls/match15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Mikkel Desler · Toulouse · 31′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedRasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse · 17′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMaxime Estève · Montpellier · 48′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 49′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTeji Savanier · Montpellier · 4′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFalaye Sacko · Montpellier · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoris Chotard · Montpellier · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNiklas Schmidt · Toulouse · 40′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Montpellier · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTeji Savanier · Montpellier · 3′ · 0.03 xG · on targetFrank Magri · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetYanis Begraoui · Toulouse · 30′ · 0.04 xG · on targetYanis Begraoui · Toulouse · 67′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 67′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNiklas Schmidt · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAkor Adams · Montpellier · 55′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Montpellier · 69′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKhalil Fayad · Montpellier · 34′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBoubakar Kouyaté · Montpellier · 63′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCésar Gelabert · Toulouse · 67′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedWahbi Khazri · Montpellier · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMikkel Desler · Toulouse · 57′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAkor Adams · Montpellier · 13′ · 0.12 xG · goalThijs Dallinga · Toulouse · 82′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedIssiaga Sylla · Montpellier · 39′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedNaatan Skyttä · Toulouse · 80′ · 0.14 xG · on targetCésar Gelabert · Toulouse · 19′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Montpellier · 80′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 11′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedThijs Dallinga · Toulouse · 79′ · 0.22 xG · on targetChristopher Jullien · Montpellier · 90′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Montpellier · 82′ · 0.29 xG · on targetAkor Adams · Montpellier · 53′ · 0.33 xG · on targetAkor Adams · Montpellier · 72′ · 0.54 xG · goalKhalil Fayad · Montpellier · 63′ · 0.81 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Montpellier: 19 shots, 6 on target, 3.03 xG. Toulouse: 17 shots, 5 on target, 1.25 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Akor Adams · Montpellier · 13′Khalil Fayad · Montpellier · 63′Akor Adams · Montpellier · 72′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Montpellier 3.03 xG · Toulouse 1.25 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Montpellier's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Toulouse's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Montpellier have a visible home split

weak

Montpellier's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.5 shots/match13.6 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Toulouse's recent record differs from the season

weak

Toulouse's last-five shots average is above their season average.

11.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots11.8 shots/match10.2 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Montpellier
0Draws
2Toulouse
Montpellier — Toulouse · Ligue 11–2
Toulouse — Montpellier · Ligue 14–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Montpellier favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Toulouse in 1 · 3 too close

1.67 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 9/101.1 goals/match
1.22 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 9/101.3 goals/match
1.64 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 9/100.91 xG/match
1.21 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 9/101.9 xG/match
13.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 9/1010.2 shots/match
13.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 9/1015.7 shots/match
5.33 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 9/104.1 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 9/10▲4.1 shots/match
45.3%Possessionseason · 9/10●47.8%
3.56 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/10●3.6 corners/match
4.33 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 9/105.7 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/1014.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/1020%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/1070%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Montpellier30.6
Toulouse36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Montpellier75
Toulouse28.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Montpellier45.4
Toulouse39.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Montpellier86.1
Toulouse19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Montpellier25
Toulouse80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Montpellier19.4
Toulouse25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Montpellier45.8
Toulouse38.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Montpellier9 matchesToulouse10 matches
1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored9/101.1 goals/match
1.22 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/101.3 goals/match
1.64 xG/match▲Expected goals9/100.91 xG/match
13.6 shots/match▲Shots9/1010.2 shots/match
5.33 shots/match▲Shots on target9/104.1 shots/match
45.3%Possession9/10●47.8%
3.56 corners/matchCorners9/10●3.6 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.1 fouls/matchFouls9/1014.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Montpellier4 matchesToulouse6 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/60.67 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/61.5 goals/match
1.79 xG/match▲Expected goals4/60.85 xG/match
16.5 shots/match▲Shots4/69.83 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/63.17 shots/match
46.3%Possession4/6●50.3%
3.75 corners/match●Corners4/63.67 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10 fouls/matchFouls4/615 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.04 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 29 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMontpellierToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2023/24
Head-to-headMontpellier — Toulouse
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Montpellier 3–0 Toulouse — Ligue 1 2023/24 Match Stats | PitchMath