PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023

AS Monaco 1–2 Toulouse · Ligue 1

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Toulouse won 1–2.

Shots
2214
Shots on target
57
Expected goals
1.671.48
Possession
65%35%

Full time

What the match recorded

Toulouse beat AS Monaco 2–1. Recorded in this match (AS Monaco – Toulouse): shots 22–14, shots on target 5–7, expected goals 1.67–1.48, possession 65%–35%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Toulouse's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Toulouse's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goal/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

15 fouls/matchFoulsAS Monaco · Toulouse14.6 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricAS MonacoToulouseBaseline
Fouls15 fouls/match14.6 fouls/match12.5 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

AS Monaco show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

AS Monaco's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.7 shots/match ▲ShotsAS Monaco · Toulouse11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAS MonacoToulouseBaseline
Shots14.7 shots/match11.7 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against11.2 shots/match14.3 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots22 shots14 shotsAS Monaco 22 shots, Toulouse 14 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots7 shotsAS Monaco 5 shots, Toulouse 7 shots
  • Expected goals1.67 xG1.48 xGAS Monaco 1.67 xG, Toulouse 1.48 xG
  • Possession65%35%AS Monaco 65%, Toulouse 35%
  • Corners4 corners6 cornersAS Monaco 4 corners, Toulouse 6 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls12 foulsAS Monaco 18 fouls, Toulouse 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Mikkel Desler · Toulouse · 69′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKassoum Ouattara · AS Monaco · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYoussouf Fofana · AS Monaco · 14′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTakumi Minamino · AS Monaco · 16′ · 0.03 xG · on targetYoussouf Fofana · AS Monaco · 22′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDenis Zakaria · AS Monaco · 22′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDenis Zakaria · AS Monaco · 22′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYoussouf Fofana · AS Monaco · 31′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYoussouf Fofana · AS Monaco · 35′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDenis Zakaria · AS Monaco · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedThilo Kehrer · AS Monaco · 56′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChristian Mawissa · Toulouse · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 57′ · 0.04 xG · on targetEliesse Ben Seghir · AS Monaco · 72′ · 0.04 xG · on targetTakumi Minamino · AS Monaco · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 10′ · 0.05 xG · on targetTakumi Minamino · AS Monaco · 58′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedYoussouf Fofana · AS Monaco · 58′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedThijs Dallinga · Toulouse · 29′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedIsmail Jakobs · AS Monaco · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMaghnes Akliouche · AS Monaco · 49′ · 0.06 xG · on targetVincent Sierro · Toulouse · 41′ · 0.07 xG · goalLogan Costa · Toulouse · 70′ · 0.07 xG · goalThijs Dallinga · Toulouse · 14′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · AS Monaco · 53′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Coulibaly · AS Monaco · 31′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · AS Monaco · 51′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 65′ · 0.14 xG · on targetFolarin Balogun · AS Monaco · 68′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedRasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse · 80′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedMaghnes Akliouche · AS Monaco · 48′ · 0.17 xG · goalFrank Magri · Toulouse · 36′ · 0.19 xG · on targetMoussa Diarra · Toulouse · 20′ · 0.21 xG · on targetMikkel Desler · Toulouse · 80′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · AS Monaco · 2′ · 0.47 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

AS Monaco: 22 shots, 5 on target, 1.68 xG. Toulouse: 14 shots, 7 on target, 1.47 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Maghnes Akliouche · AS Monaco · 48′Vincent Sierro · Toulouse · 41′Logan Costa · Toulouse · 70′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: AS Monaco 1.68 xG · Toulouse 1.47 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2AS Monaco
0Draws
1Toulouse
Toulouse — AS Monaco · Ligue 11–2
AS Monaco — Toulouse · Ligue 11–2
Toulouse — AS Monaco · Ligue 10–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: AS Monaco favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Toulouse in 1 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

AS Monaco22 matchesToulouse22 matches
1.86 goals/match ▲Goals scored22/221 goal/match
1.45 goals/matchGoals allowed22/22▲ 1.36 goals/match
1.45 xG/match ▲Expected goals22/221.13 xG/match
14.7 shots/match ▲Shots22/2211.7 shots/match
6 shots/match ▲Shots on target22/224.23 shots/match
54.7% ●Possession22/2249.3%
5.59 corners/match ●Corners22/224.14 corners/match
15 fouls/matchFouls22/2214.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAS MonacoToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2023/24
Head-to-headAS Monaco — Toulouse
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required