PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023

Stade Brestois 1–0 Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 1

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Stade Brestois won 1–0.

Shots
159
Shots on target
52
Expected goals
1.760.56
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

Stade Brestois beat Olympique de Marseille 1–0. Recorded in this match (Stade Brestois – Olympique de Marseille): shots 15–9, shots on target 5–2, expected goals 1.76–0.56, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Olympique de Marseille's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Olympique de Marseille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.32 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.32 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots9 shotsStade Brestois 15 shots, Olympique de Marseille 9 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots2 shotsStade Brestois 5 shots, Olympique de Marseille 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.76 xG0.56 xGStade Brestois 1.76 xG, Olympique de Marseille 0.56 xG
  • Possession42%58%Stade Brestois 42%, Olympique de Marseille 58%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersStade Brestois 6 corners, Olympique de Marseille 4 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls9 foulsStade Brestois 14 fouls, Olympique de Marseille 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Pierre Lees Melou · Stade Brestois · 44′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Stade Brestois · 5′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Olympique de Marseille · 75′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Clauss · Olympique de Marseille · 20′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIliman Ndiaye · Olympique de Marseille · 86′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Olympique de Marseille · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetHugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois · 43′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois · 4′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMartín Satriano · Stade Brestois · 67′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSteve Mounié · Stade Brestois · 5′ · 0.06 xG · on targetBrendan Chardonnet · Stade Brestois · 31′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · Stade Brestois · 22′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedChancel Mbemba · Olympique de Marseille · 36′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedChancel Mbemba · Olympique de Marseille · 41′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Stade Brestois · 25′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Olympique de Marseille · 80′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Olympique de Marseille · 87′ · 0.10 xG · on targetUlisses Garcia · Olympique de Marseille · 68′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · Stade Brestois · 69′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois · 29′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois · 51′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Stade Brestois · 88′ · 0.25 xG · goalMathias Pereira Lage · Stade Brestois · 42′ · 0.26 xG · on targetSteve Mounié · Stade Brestois · 55′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Stade Brestois: 15 shots, 5 on target, 1.74 xG. Olympique de Marseille: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.57 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Pierre Lees Melou · Stade Brestois · 88′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stade Brestois 1.74 xG · Olympique de Marseille 0.57 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Stade Brestois
1Draws
2Olympique de Marseille
Olympique de Marseille — Stade Brestois · Ligue 12–0
Olympique de Marseille — Stade Brestois · Ligue 11–2
Stade Brestois — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 11–1
Stade Brestois — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 11–4
Olympique de Marseille — Stade Brestois · Ligue 11–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Stade Brestois favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Olympique de Marseille in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Stade Brestois22 matchesOlympique de Marseille22 matches
1.41 goals/match ▲Goals scored22/221.32 goals/match
0.82 goals/match ▲Goals allowed22/221.09 goals/match
1.48 xG/matchExpected goals22/22▲ 1.58 xG/match
14.5 shots/match ▲Shots22/2213.7 shots/match
5.23 shots/match ▲Shots on target22/224.27 shots/match
52.8%Possession22/22● 53.8%
4.64 corners/matchCorners22/22● 5.77 corners/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls22/2211 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Feb 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsStade BrestoisOlympique de Marseille
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2023/24
Head-to-headStade Brestois — Olympique de Marseille
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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