PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023

Lille 1–0 RC Strasbourg · Ligue 1

Lille

WDDWW
1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lille won 1–0.

Shots
68
Shots on target
22
Expected goals
0.791.27
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lille beat RC Strasbourg 1–0. Recorded in this match (Lille – RC Strasbourg): shots 6–8, shots on target 2–2, expected goals 0.79–1.27, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

RC Strasbourg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

RC Strasbourg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.1 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

RC Strasbourg show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

RC Strasbourg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLille · RC Strasbourg10.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLilleRC StrasbourgBaseline
Shots13.2 shots/match10.9 shots/match13.2 shots/match
Shots against9.48 shots/match12.2 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Lille have recorded the higher season possession share.

56.5% ●PossessionLille · RC Strasbourg42.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLilleRC StrasbourgBaseline
Possession56.5%42.9%51.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots6 shots8 shotsLille 6 shots, RC Strasbourg 8 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots2 shotsLille 2 shots, RC Strasbourg 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.79 xG1.27 xGLille 0.79 xG, RC Strasbourg 1.27 xG
  • Possession53%47%Lille 53%, RC Strasbourg 47%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersLille 4 corners, RC Strasbourg 4 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls19 foulsLille 11 fouls, RC Strasbourg 19 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Moïse Sahi Dion · RC Strasbourg · 75′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedHabib Diarra · RC Strasbourg · 39′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMarvin Senaya · RC Strasbourg · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin André · Lille · 3′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKévin Gameiro · RC Strasbourg · 18′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRémy Cabella · Lille · 41′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTiago Santos · Lille · 36′ · 0.06 xG · on targetBenjamin André · Lille · 6′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKévin Gameiro · RC Strasbourg · 39′ · 0.10 xG · on targetAlexsandro Ribeiro · Lille · 45′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedThomas Delaine · RC Strasbourg · 89′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedMoïse Sahi Dion · RC Strasbourg · 80′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedJonathan David · Lille · 12′ · 0.38 xG · goalEmmanuel Emegha · RC Strasbourg · 79′ · 0.62 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lille: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.79 xG. RC Strasbourg: 8 shots, 2 on target, 1.31 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Jonathan David · Lille · 12′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lille 0.79 xG · RC Strasbourg 1.31 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Lille
0Draws
1RC Strasbourg
RC Strasbourg — Lille · Ligue 12–1
Lille — RC Strasbourg · Ligue 12–0
RC Strasbourg — Lille · Ligue 10–3
Lille — RC Strasbourg · Ligue 11–0
RC Strasbourg — Lille · Ligue 11–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lille favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · RC Strasbourg in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lille29 matchesRC Strasbourg30 matches
1.48 goals/match ▲Goals scored29/301.1 goals/match
0.86 goals/match ▲Goals allowed29/301.37 goals/match
1.49 xG/match ▲Expected goals29/301.28 xG/match
13.2 shots/match ▲Shots29/3010.9 shots/match
5.21 shots/match ▲Shots on target29/303.63 shots/match
56.5% ●Possession29/3042.9%
5.41 corners/match ●Corners29/303.6 corners/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls29/3013.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLilleRC Strasbourg
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2023/24
Head-to-headLille — RC Strasbourg
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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