PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023

Toulouse 2–2 Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 1

2–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Toulouse and Olympique de Marseille drew 2–2.

Shots
1011
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
0.511.1
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

Toulouse and Olympique de Marseille drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Toulouse – Olympique de Marseille): shots 10–11, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 0.51–1.1, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Toulouse's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Toulouse's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.2 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Toulouse show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Toulouse's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.6 shots/match ▲ShotsToulouse · Olympique de Marseille13.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricToulouseOlympique de MarseilleBaseline
Shots11.6 shots/match13.9 shots/match13.2 shots/match
Shots against13.9 shots/match10.7 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots11 shotsToulouse 10 shots, Olympique de Marseille 11 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsToulouse 3 shots, Olympique de Marseille 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.51 xG1.1 xGToulouse 0.51 xG, Olympique de Marseille 1.1 xG
  • Possession45%55%Toulouse 45%, Olympique de Marseille 55%
  • Corners7 corners4 cornersToulouse 7 corners, Olympique de Marseille 4 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls13 foulsToulouse 11 fouls, Olympique de Marseille 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jordan Veretout · Olympique de Marseille · 38′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedZakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 16′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Olympique de Marseille · 38′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMoussa Diarra · Toulouse · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedZakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAzzedine Ounahi · Olympique de Marseille · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Olympique de Marseille · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJean Onana · Olympique de Marseille · 38′ · 0.05 xG · goalPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Olympique de Marseille · 42′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFaris Pemi Moumbagna · Olympique de Marseille · 69′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 82′ · 0.06 xG · goalRasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse · 45′ · 0.07 xG · goalPape Gueye · Olympique de Marseille · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFaris Pemi Moumbagna · Olympique de Marseille · 90′ · 0.09 xG · goalPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Olympique de Marseille · 55′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedVincent Sierro · Toulouse · 75′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedZakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse · 18′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedJean Onana · Olympique de Marseille · 32′ · 0.57 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Toulouse: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.50 xG. Olympique de Marseille: 11 shots, 3 on target, 1.09 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Rasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse · 45′Yann Gboho · Toulouse · 82′Jean Onana · Olympique de Marseille · 38′Faris Pemi Moumbagna · Olympique de Marseille · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Toulouse 0.50 xG · Olympique de Marseille 1.09 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Toulouse
1Draws
2Olympique de Marseille
Olympique de Marseille — Toulouse · Ligue 10–0
Toulouse — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 12–3
Olympique de Marseille — Toulouse · Ligue 16–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Toulouse favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Olympique de Marseille in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Toulouse30 matchesOlympique de Marseille29 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored30/29▲ 1.48 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed30/29▲ 1.21 goals/match
1.18 xG/matchExpected goals30/29▲ 1.58 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots30/29▲ 13.9 shots/match
4.03 shots/matchShots on target30/29▲ 4.62 shots/match
48.1%Possession30/29● 53.7%
4.33 corners/matchCorners30/29● 5.38 corners/match
14.9 fouls/matchFouls30/2911.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Apr 2024, 21:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsToulouseOlympique de Marseille
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2023/24
Head-to-headToulouse — Olympique de Marseille
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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