PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023

Paris Saint-Germain 1–3 Toulouse · Ligue 1

1–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Toulouse won 1–3.

Shots
1518
Shots on target
35
Expected goals
2.181.56
Possession
64%36%

Full time

What the match recorded

Toulouse beat Paris Saint-Germain 3–1. Recorded in this match (Paris Saint-Germain – Toulouse): shots 15–18, shots on target 3–5, expected goals 2.18–1.56, possession 64%–36%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Toulouse's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Toulouse's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.27 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.27 goals/match1.26 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Paris Saint-Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

65.2% ●PossessionParis Saint-Germain · Toulouse48.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint-GermainToulouseBaseline
Possession65.2%48.2%51.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Paris Saint-Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Paris Saint-Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.1 shots/match ▲ShotsParis Saint-Germain · Toulouse12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint-GermainToulouseBaseline
Shots15.1 shots/match12 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against12.2 shots/match13.7 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots18 shotsParis Saint-Germain 15 shots, Toulouse 18 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots5 shotsParis Saint-Germain 3 shots, Toulouse 5 shots
  • Expected goals2.18 xG1.56 xGParis Saint-Germain 2.18 xG, Toulouse 1.56 xG
  • Possession64%36%Paris Saint-Germain 64%, Toulouse 36%
  • Corners4 corners6 cornersParis Saint-Germain 4 corners, Toulouse 6 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls8 foulsParis Saint-Germain 12 fouls, Toulouse 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Zakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse · 24′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKévin Keben Biakolo · Toulouse · 30′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMikkel Desler · Toulouse · 11′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedZakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedZakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDanilo Pereira · Paris Saint-Germain · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKang-in Lee · Paris Saint-Germain · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNordi Mukiele · Paris Saint-Germain · 66′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 66′ · 0.02 xG · on targetVincent Sierro · Toulouse · 22′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 36′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedZakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse · 39′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMikkel Desler · Toulouse · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 4′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarco Asensio · Paris Saint-Germain · 26′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 42′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedVincent Sierro · Toulouse · 62′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 66′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 68′ · 0.05 xG · goalThijs Dallinga · Toulouse · 15′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 71′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedVincent Sierro · Toulouse · 1′ · 0.07 xG · on targetYann Gboho · Toulouse · 53′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedZakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse · 17′ · 0.10 xG · on targetCarlos Soler · Paris Saint-Germain · 49′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 58′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedChristian Mawissa · Toulouse · 84′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMarco Asensio · Paris Saint-Germain · 56′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedDanilo Pereira · Paris Saint-Germain · 67′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Soler · Paris Saint-Germain · 76′ · 0.34 xG · on targetThijs Dallinga · Toulouse · 13′ · 0.36 xG · goalFrank Magri · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.46 xG · goalKylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 8′ · 0.83 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris Saint-Germain: 15 shots, 3 on target, 2.22 xG. Toulouse: 18 shots, 5 on target, 1.60 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 8′Thijs Dallinga · Toulouse · 13′Yann Gboho · Toulouse · 68′Frank Magri · Toulouse · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris Saint-Germain 2.22 xG · Toulouse 1.60 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Paris Saint-Germain
1Draws
0Toulouse
Toulouse — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 11–1
Paris Saint-Germain — Toulouse · Ligue 12–1
Toulouse — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 10–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Paris Saint-Germain favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Toulouse in 1

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Paris Saint-Germain32 matchesToulouse33 matches
2.41 goals/match ▲Goals scored32/331.27 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed32/331.3 goals/match
2.08 xG/match ▲Expected goals32/331.21 xG/match
15.1 shots/match ▲Shots32/3312 shots/match
5.9 shots/match ▲Shots on target31/334.12 shots/match
65.2% ●Possession32/3348.2%
5.81 corners/match ●Corners32/334.39 corners/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls32/3314.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples32 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 12 May 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsParis Saint-GermainToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2023/24
Head-to-headParis Saint-Germain — Toulouse
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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