PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

RC Lens 3–2 Nantes · Ligue 1

RC Lens

DDWLL
3–2Historical match

Nantes

DLDLL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

RC Lens won 3–2.

Shots
159
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
2.991.42
Possession
68%32%

Full time

What the match recorded

RC Lens beat Nantes 3–2. Recorded in this match (RC Lens – Nantes): shots 15–9, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 2.99–1.42, possession 68%–32%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

RC Lens's recent record differs from the season

moderate

RC Lens's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.09 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.09 goals/match1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

RC Lens have a visible home split

moderate

RC Lens's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16 shots/match13.6 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

RC Lens have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.7% ●PossessionRC Lens · Nantes41.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricRC LensNantesBaseline
Possession54.7%41.4%48.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots9 shotsRC Lens 15 shots, Nantes 9 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsRC Lens 3 shots, Nantes 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.99 xG1.42 xGRC Lens 2.99 xG, Nantes 1.42 xG
  • Possession68%32%RC Lens 68%, Nantes 32%
  • Corners6 corners1 cornerRC Lens 6 corners, Nantes 1 corner
  • Fouls14 fouls8 foulsRC Lens 14 fouls, Nantes 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Nicolas Pallois · Nantes · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMoses Simon · Nantes · 55′ · 0.01 xG · on targetDeiver Machado · RC Lens · 10′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBahereba Guirassy · Nantes · 88′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Sotoca · RC Lens · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDavid Pereira Da Costa · RC Lens · 41′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Sotoca · RC Lens · 87′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJean-Charles Castelletto · Nantes · 9′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Sotoca · RC Lens · 82′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedHamzat Ojediran · RC Lens · 86′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedIgnatius Ganago · Nantes · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedNeil El Aynaoui · RC Lens · 56′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAndy Diouf · RC Lens · 55′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedNeil El Aynaoui · RC Lens · 58′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedIgnatius Ganago · Nantes · 67′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedFacundo Medina · RC Lens · 11′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedFacundo Medina · RC Lens · 33′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 3′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · RC Lens · 2′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedHamzat Ojediran · RC Lens · 86′ · 0.21 xG · goalNicolas Cozza · Nantes · 71′ · 0.22 xG · goalPrzemysław Frankowski · RC Lens · 21′ · 0.82 xG · goalMoses Simon · Nantes · 36′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

RC Lens: 14 shots, 2 on target, 2.05 xG. Nantes: 9 shots, 3 on target, 1.49 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Przemysław Frankowski · RC Lens · 21′Hamzat Ojediran · RC Lens · 86′Moses Simon · Nantes · 36′Nicolas Cozza · Nantes · 71′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: RC Lens 2.05 xG · Nantes 1.49 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3RC Lens
2Draws
0Nantes
Nantes — RC Lens · Ligue 10–1
RC Lens — Nantes · Ligue 14–0
RC Lens — Nantes · Ligue 13–1
Nantes — RC Lens · Ligue 10–0
RC Lens — Nantes · Ligue 12–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: RC Lens favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Nantes in 3 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

RC Lens11 matchesNantes11 matches
1.09 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲ 1.27 goals/match
0.82 goals/match ▲Goals allowed11/111.55 goals/match
1.56 xG/match ▲Expected goals11/111.11 xG/match
13.6 shots/match ▲Shots11/1110.6 shots/match
4.55 shots/matchShots on target11/114.36 shots/match
54.7% ●Possession11/1141.4%
5.82 corners/match ●Corners11/114.64 corners/match
16.1 fouls/matchFouls11/1112 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 9 Nov 2024, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRC LensNantes
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headRC Lens — Nantes
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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