PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

Toulouse 1–1 Nice · Ligue 1

1–1Historical match

Nice

DWWLW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Toulouse and Nice drew 1–1.

Shots
1513
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
1.391.67
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

Toulouse and Nice drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Toulouse – Nice): shots 15–13, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 1.39–1.67, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Toulouse's recent record differs from the season

weak

Toulouse's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.05 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.05 goals/match1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots13 shotsToulouse 15 shots, Nice 13 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsToulouse 4 shots, Nice 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.39 xG1.67 xGToulouse 1.39 xG, Nice 1.67 xG
  • Possession53%47%Toulouse 53%, Nice 47%
  • Corners7 corners2 cornersToulouse 7 corners, Nice 2 corners
  • Fouls20 fouls20 foulsToulouse 20 fouls, Nice 20 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Frank Magri · Toulouse · 40′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Ali Cho · Nice · 60′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJonathan Clauss · Nice · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 55′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedWaren Kamanzi · Toulouse · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYoussoufa Moukoko · Nice · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 34′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBaptiste Santamaria · Nice · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSofiane Diop · Nice · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 3′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedÜmit Akdağ · Toulouse · 3′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedWaren Kamanzi · Toulouse · 39′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Clauss · Nice · 60′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Ali Cho · Nice · 86′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBaptiste Santamaria · Nice · 60′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 44′ · 0.08 xG · on targetFrank Magri · Toulouse · 20′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedBaptiste Santamaria · Nice · 30′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedZakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse · 2′ · 0.11 xG · on targetBaptiste Santamaria · Nice · 74′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedYoussouf Ndayishimiye · Nice · 65′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 34′ · 0.18 xG · on targetGaëtan Laborde · Nice · 29′ · 0.21 xG · on targetFrank Magri · Toulouse · 55′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedMark McKenzie · Toulouse · 85′ · 0.44 xG · goalGaëtan Laborde · Nice · 18′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Toulouse: 15 shots, 4 on target, 1.45 xG. Nice: 13 shots, 3 on target, 1.71 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Mark McKenzie · Toulouse · 85′Gaëtan Laborde · Nice · 18′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Toulouse 1.45 xG · Nice 1.71 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Toulouse
3Draws
1Nice
Nice — Toulouse · Ligue 11–1
Toulouse — Nice · Ligue 12–1
Nice — Toulouse · Ligue 11–0
Nice — Toulouse · Ligue 10–0
Toulouse — Nice · Ligue 11–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Toulouse favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Nice in 5

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Toulouse20 matchesNice20 matches
1.05 goals/matchGoals scored20/20▲ 1.95 goals/match
1.1 goals/match ▲Goals allowed20/201.3 goals/match
1.42 xG/matchExpected goals20/20▲ 1.79 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots20/20▲ 13.8 shots/match
4.15 shots/matchShots on target20/20▲ 5.55 shots/match
46%Possession20/20● 46.3%
4.6 corners/match ●Corners20/204.5 corners/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls20/2011.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Feb 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsToulouseNice
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headToulouse — Nice
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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