PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

Lille 1–0 RC Lens · Ligue 1

Lille

WWLWL
1–0Historical match

RC Lens

LLLWW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lille won 1–0.

Shots
115
Shots on target
52
Expected goals
1.720.41
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lille beat RC Lens 1–0. Recorded in this match (Lille – RC Lens): shots 11–5, shots on target 5–2, expected goals 1.72–0.41, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Lille's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.52 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.52 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots5 shotsLille 11 shots, RC Lens 5 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots2 shotsLille 5 shots, RC Lens 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.72 xG0.41 xGLille 1.72 xG, RC Lens 0.41 xG
  • Possession45%55%Lille 45%, RC Lens 55%
  • Corners6 corners2 cornersLille 6 corners, RC Lens 2 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls15 foulsLille 13 fouls, RC Lens 15 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Matías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndré Gomes · Lille · 6′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMitchel Bakker · Lille · 14′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNgal'ayel Mukau · Lille · 45′ · 0.04 xG · on targetM'bala Nzola · RC Lens · 87′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAïssa Mandi · Lille · 5′ · 0.05 xG · on targetNeil El Aynaoui · RC Lens · 57′ · 0.05 xG · on targetIsmaily · Lille · 4′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedM'bala Nzola · RC Lens · 88′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedGoduine Koyalipou · RC Lens · 77′ · 0.10 xG · on targetThomas Meunier · Lille · 45′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJonathan David · Lille · 27′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedJeremy Agbonifo · RC Lens · 90′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 29′ · 0.16 xG · on targetMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 2′ · 0.27 xG · on targetMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 19′ · 0.99 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lille: 11 shots, 5 on target, 1.90 xG. RC Lens: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.41 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Matías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 19′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lille 1.90 xG · RC Lens 0.41 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Lille
2Draws
0RC Lens
RC Lens — Lille · Ligue 10–2
Lille — RC Lens · Ligue 12–1
RC Lens — Lille · Ligue 11–1
RC Lens — Lille · Ligue 11–1
Lille — RC Lens · Ligue 11–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lille favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · RC Lens in 2 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lille27 matchesRC Lens27 matches
1.52 goals/match ▲Goals scored27/271.15 goals/match
1.04 goals/match ▲Goals allowed27/271.11 goals/match
1.7 xG/match ▲Expected goals27/271.5 xG/match
13 shots/matchShots27/2713.4 shots/match
5.07 shots/match ▲Shots on target27/274.22 shots/match
58.1% ●Possession27/2753.6%
4.96 corners/matchCorners27/27● 5.52 corners/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls27/2715.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Mar 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLilleRC Lens
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headLille — RC Lens
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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