PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

Stade Brestois 1–3 RC Lens · Ligue 1

1–3Historical match

RC Lens

WWLWL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

RC Lens won 1–3.

Shots
1117
Shots on target
59
Expected goals
0.732.52
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

RC Lens beat Stade Brestois 3–1. Recorded in this match (Stade Brestois – RC Lens): shots 11–17, shots on target 5–9, expected goals 0.73–2.52, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Stade Brestois's recent record differs from the season

weak

Stade Brestois's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.6 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.6 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots17 shotsStade Brestois 11 shots, RC Lens 17 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots9 shotsStade Brestois 5 shots, RC Lens 9 shots
  • Expected goals0.73 xG2.52 xGStade Brestois 0.73 xG, RC Lens 2.52 xG
  • Possession44%56%Stade Brestois 44%, RC Lens 56%
  • Corners7 corners6 cornersStade Brestois 7 corners, RC Lens 6 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls11 foulsStade Brestois 11 fouls, RC Lens 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Pierre Lees Melou · Stade Brestois · 53′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAnass Zaroury · RC Lens · 16′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNeil El Aynaoui · RC Lens · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJeremy Agbonifo · RC Lens · 48′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJeremy Agbonifo · RC Lens · 59′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMassadio Haïdara · Stade Brestois · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMalang Sarr · RC Lens · 85′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMassadio Haïdara · Stade Brestois · 33′ · 0.03 xG · on targetGoduine Koyalipou · RC Lens · 85′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMahdi Camara · Stade Brestois · 75′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRomain Faivre · Stade Brestois · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · RC Lens · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · RC Lens · 84′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBrendan Chardonnet · Stade Brestois · 86′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Sotoca · RC Lens · 30′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMahdi Camara · Stade Brestois · 35′ · 0.08 xG · on targetAbdallah Sima · Stade Brestois · 39′ · 0.09 xG · on targetFlorian Sotoca · RC Lens · 28′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedGoduine Koyalipou · RC Lens · 31′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · Stade Brestois · 42′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · RC Lens · 90′ · 0.14 xG · goalAnass Zaroury · RC Lens · 24′ · 0.20 xG · on targetAndy Diouf · RC Lens · 90′ · 0.22 xG · on targetPierre Lees Melou · Stade Brestois · 13′ · 0.29 xG · goalAdrien Thomasson · RC Lens · 45′ · 0.30 xG · on targetMahdi Camara · Stade Brestois · 67′ · 0.30 xG · on targetGoduine Koyalipou · RC Lens · 17′ · 0.37 xG · goalNeil El Aynaoui · RC Lens · 45′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Stade Brestois: 11 shots, 5 on target, 1.08 xG. RC Lens: 17 shots, 9 on target, 2.59 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Pierre Lees Melou · Stade Brestois · 13′Goduine Koyalipou · RC Lens · 17′Neil El Aynaoui · RC Lens · 45′Wesley Saïd · RC Lens · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stade Brestois 1.08 xG · RC Lens 2.59 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Stade Brestois
1Draws
3RC Lens
RC Lens — Stade Brestois · Ligue 12–0
RC Lens — Stade Brestois · Ligue 11–0
Stade Brestois — RC Lens · Ligue 13–2
Stade Brestois — RC Lens · Ligue 11–1
RC Lens — Stade Brestois · Ligue 13–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Stade Brestois favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · RC Lens in 7 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Stade Brestois30 matchesRC Lens30 matches
1.6 goals/match ▲Goals scored30/301.17 goals/match
1.63 goals/matchGoals allowed30/30▲ 1.1 goals/match
1.33 xG/matchExpected goals29/30▲ 1.62 xG/match
12.4 shots/matchShots29/30▲ 14.5 shots/match
4.86 shots/matchShots on target29/304.73 shots/match
48.3%Possession29/30● 54.5%
4.34 corners/matchCorners29/30● 5.67 corners/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls29/3014.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 20 Apr 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsStade BrestoisRC Lens
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headStade Brestois — RC Lens
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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