PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023Sat, 26 Aug 2023, 13:30 UTCFull timeHistorical match
1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

This match

Match statistics

Metric1. FC KölnVfL Wolfsburg
Shots13 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.85 xG/match1.68 xG/match▲
Possession49%51%●
Corners6 corners/match●1 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Luca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDejan Ljubičić · 1. FC Köln · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLovro Majer · VfL Wolfsburg · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLinton Maina · 1. FC Köln · 78′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoakim Mæhle · VfL Wolfsburg · 9′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 19′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRasmus Carstensen · 1. FC Köln · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMathias Olesen · 1. FC Köln · 80′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDavie Selke · 1. FC Köln · 24′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 63′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSargis Adamyan · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRasmus Carstensen · 1. FC Köln · 13′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 55′ · 0.06 xG · goalJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 72′ · 0.09 xG · on targetJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 72′ · 0.11 xG · goalPatrick Wimmer · VfL Wolfsburg · 10′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 62′ · 0.30 xG · goalJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 15′ · 0.38 xG · on targetTimo Hübers · 1. FC Köln · 78′ · 0.47 xG · on targetJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 15′ · 0.77 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Köln: 13 shots, 2 on target, 0.89 xG. VfL Wolfsburg: 9 shots, 6 on target, 1.97 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Luca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 55′Jonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 62′Jonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 72′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Köln 0.89 xG · VfL Wolfsburg 1.97 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The available record does not support a clear cross-team pattern. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

21. FC Köln
0Draws
2VfL Wolfsburg
1. FC Köln — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga0–2
VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga2–4
1. FC Köln — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga0–1
VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga2–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

1. FC Köln favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 0 · 13 too close

—Goals scoredseason · 2/2—
—Goals allowedseason · 2/2—
—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—
—Shotsseason · 2/2—
—Shots allowedseason · 2/2—
—Shots on targetseason · 2/2—
—Shots on target allowedseason · 2/2—
—Possessionseason · 2/2—
—Cornersseason · 2/2—
—Corners allowedseason · 2/2—
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
—Foulsseason · 2/2—
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
—Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 2/2—
—Scoring frequencyseason · 2/2—

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1. FC Köln—
VfL Wolfsburg—
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1. FC Köln—
VfL Wolfsburg—
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1. FC Köln—
VfL Wolfsburg—
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1. FC Köln—
VfL Wolfsburg—
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1. FC Köln—
VfL Wolfsburg—
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1. FC Köln—
VfL Wolfsburg—
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1. FC Köln—
VfL Wolfsburg—
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

1. FC Köln2 matchesVfL Wolfsburg2 matches
—Goals scored2/2—
—Goals allowed2/2—
—Expected goals2/2—
—Shots2/2—
—Shots on target2/2—
—Possession2/2—
—Corners2/2—
—Cards0/0—
—Fouls2/2—

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

1. FC Köln1 matchesVfL Wolfsburg1 matches
—Goals scored1/1—
—Goals allowed1/1—
—Expected goals1/1—
—Shots1/1—
—Shots on target1/1—
—Possession1/1—
—Corners1/1—
—Cards0/0—
—Fouls1/1—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples2 / 2home / away teams
Recent samples2 / 2last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: goals_for, goals_against, xg_for, xg_against, shots, shots_on_target, possession, corners, cards, fouls.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 26 Aug 2023, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4
Teams1. FC KölnVfL Wolfsburg
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-head1. FC Köln — VfL Wolfsburg
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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