PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Lazio 3–2 Atalanta · Serie A

Lazio

WLDWL
3–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lazio won 3–2.

Shots
1212
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
1.570.98
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lazio beat Atalanta 3–2. Recorded in this match (Lazio – Atalanta): shots 12–12, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 1.57–0.98, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atalanta's recent record differs from the season

weak

Atalanta's last-five shots average is below their season average.

11.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots11.2 shots/match13.5 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.9 shots/match ▲ShotsLazio · Atalanta13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLazioAtalantaBaseline
Shots10.9 shots/match13.5 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against14.5 shots/match10.6 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Atalanta.

7.88 days ▲Rest daysLazio · Atalanta6.88 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricLazioAtalantaBaseline
Rest days7.88 days6.88 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots12 shotsLazio 12 shots, Atalanta 12 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shotsLazio 4 shots, Atalanta 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.57 xG0.98 xGLazio 1.57 xG, Atalanta 0.98 xG
  • Possession46%54%Lazio 46%, Atalanta 54%
  • Corners4 corners6 cornersLazio 4 corners, Atalanta 6 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls10 foulsLazio 7 fouls, Atalanta 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Nicolò Rovella · Lazio · 21′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFelipe Anderson · Lazio · 26′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLuis Alberto · Lazio · 14′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMattéo Guendouzi · Lazio · 18′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDavide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Scamacca · Atalanta · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMattia Zaccagni · Lazio · 38′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Rovella · Lazio · 38′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDaichi Kamada · Lazio · 74′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPedro · Lazio · 75′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLuis Muriel · Atalanta · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 37′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGustav Isaksen · Lazio · 80′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGiorgio Scalvini · Atalanta · 88′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDavide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 40′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Scamacca · Atalanta · 58′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 49′ · 0.07 xG · on targetLuis Muriel · Atalanta · 90′ · 0.11 xG · on targetMario Pašalić · Atalanta · 25′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Casale · Lazio · 14′ · 0.47 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lazio: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.70 xG. Atalanta: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.76 xG. · 4 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lazio 0.70 xG · Atalanta 0.76 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Lazio
2Draws
1Atalanta
Lazio — Atalanta · Serie A0–2
Atalanta — Lazio · Serie A0–2
Lazio — Atalanta · Serie A0–0
Atalanta — Lazio · Serie A2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lazio favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Atalanta in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lazio8 matchesAtalanta8 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 1.63 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 1 goal/match
1.04 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 1.27 xG/match
10.9 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 13.5 shots/match
3.13 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 4.75 shots/match
52.5% ●Possession8/851.1%
4.75 corners/matchCorners8/8● 5.5 corners/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls8/812.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Oct 2023, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLazioAtalanta
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023/24
Head-to-headLazio — Atalanta
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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