PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Cagliari 1–4 Roma · Serie A

1–4Historical match

Roma

LWDLW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Roma won 1–4.

Shots
1611
Shots on target
25
Expected goals
1.712.58
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

Roma beat Cagliari 4–1. Recorded in this match (Cagliari – Roma): shots 16–11, shots on target 2–5, expected goals 1.71–2.58, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Cagliari have a visible home split

weak

Cagliari's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.5 shots/match10.6 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Roma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Roma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3 goals/match2.38 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Cagliari show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Cagliari's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.6 shots/match ▲ShotsCagliari · Roma13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCagliariRomaBaseline
Shots10.6 shots/match13.6 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against13.4 shots/match8.63 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots11 shotsCagliari 16 shots, Roma 11 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots5 shotsCagliari 2 shots, Roma 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.71 xG2.58 xGCagliari 1.71 xG, Roma 2.58 xG
  • Possession58%42%Cagliari 58%, Roma 42%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersCagliari 4 corners, Roma 3 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls13 foulsCagliari 15 fouls, Roma 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Leandro Paredes · Roma · 18′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLeonardo Spinazzola · Roma · 66′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPaulo Azzi · Cagliari · 76′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Prati · Cagliari · 75′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPaulo Azzi · Cagliari · 30′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEdoardo Bove · Roma · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGaetano Oristanio · Cagliari · 70′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Prati · Cagliari · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPaulo Azzi · Cagliari · 40′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Petagna · Cagliari · 10′ · 0.05 xG · on targetPaulo Dybala · Roma · 17′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGabriele Zappa · Cagliari · 79′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNahitan Nández · Cagliari · 26′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRomelu Lukaku · Roma · 56′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLeonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari · 72′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Prati · Cagliari · 68′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Petagna · Cagliari · 58′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLeonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari · 80′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPaulo Azzi · Cagliari · 40′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMateusz Wieteska · Cagliari · 44′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedPaulo Dybala · Roma · 18′ · 0.25 xG · on targetRomelu Lukaku · Roma · 47′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedRomelu Lukaku · Roma · 59′ · 0.27 xG · goalHoussem Aouar · Roma · 19′ · 0.29 xG · goalAndrea Belotti · Roma · 51′ · 0.37 xG · goalNahitan Nández · Cagliari · 87′ · 0.82 xG · goalRomelu Lukaku · Roma · 20′ · 0.96 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Cagliari: 16 shots, 2 on target, 1.71 xG. Roma: 11 shots, 5 on target, 2.57 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Nahitan Nández · Cagliari · 87′Houssem Aouar · Roma · 19′Romelu Lukaku · Roma · 20′Andrea Belotti · Roma · 51′Romelu Lukaku · Roma · 59′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Cagliari 1.71 xG · Roma 2.57 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Cagliari
0Draws
2Roma
Roma — Cagliari · Serie A1–0
Cagliari — Roma · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cagliari favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Roma in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cagliari8 matchesRoma8 matches
0.38 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 2.38 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 1.5 goals/match
0.91 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 1.57 xG/match
10.6 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 13.6 shots/match
2.25 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 4.63 shots/match
40.3%Possession8/8● 56.1%
3.63 corners/matchCorners8/8● 5.5 corners/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls8/811.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Oct 2023, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCagliariRoma
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023/24
Head-to-headCagliari — Roma
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required