PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Mon, 18 Dec 2023, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
4–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtalantaSalernitana
Shots20 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target11 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals1.89 xG/match▲1.32 xG/match
Possession52%●48%
Corners10 corners/match●7 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Agustín Martegani · Salernitana · 50′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLuis Muriel · Atalanta · 32′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLuis Muriel · Atalanta · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDavide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Candreva · Salernitana · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 23′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLuis Muriel · Atalanta · 65′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedÉderson · Atalanta · 13′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuis Muriel · Atalanta · 30′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuis Muriel · Atalanta · 62′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLorenzo Pirola · Salernitana · 10′ · 0.05 xG · goalGiulio Maggiore · Salernitana · 22′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDavide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 35′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLuis Muriel · Atalanta · 47′ · 0.05 xG · goalMario Pašalić · Atalanta · 52′ · 0.06 xG · goalAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 58′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 51′ · 0.07 xG · on targetDomagoj Bradarić · Salernitana · 69′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAleksey Miranchuk · Atalanta · 87′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedBoulaye Dia · Salernitana · 75′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAleksey Miranchuk · Atalanta · 89′ · 0.09 xG · goalBoulaye Dia · Salernitana · 50′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedTeun Koopmeiners · Atalanta · 8′ · 0.16 xG · on targetTeun Koopmeiners · Atalanta · 20′ · 0.16 xG · on targetAleksey Miranchuk · Atalanta · 90′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedFlavius Daniliuc · Salernitana · 21′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedBoulaye Dia · Salernitana · 49′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 12′ · 0.29 xG · on targetCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 83′ · 0.43 xG · goalChukwubuikem Ikwuemesi · Salernitana · 73′ · 0.50 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Atalanta: 20 shots, 11 on target, 1.90 xG. Salernitana: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.31 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Luis Muriel · Atalanta · 47′Mario Pašalić · Atalanta · 52′Charles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 83′Aleksey Miranchuk · Atalanta · 89′Lorenzo Pirola · Salernitana · 10′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atalanta 1.90 xG · Salernitana 1.31 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Salernitana's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Salernitana's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Salernitana's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.75 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.1 shots/match▲ShotsAtalanta · Salernitana10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtalantaSalernitanaBaseline
Shots14.1 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against11 shots/match15.5 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Salernitana have a visible away split

moderate

Salernitana's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.13 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.13 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Atalanta
1Draws
1Salernitana
Salernitana — Atalanta · Serie A1–0
Atalanta — Salernitana · Serie A8–2
Atalanta — Salernitana · Serie A1–1
Salernitana — Atalanta · Serie A0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Atalanta favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Salernitana in 0 · 2 too close

1.75 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/160.75 goals/match
1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/162.13 goals/match
1.35 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 16/160.82 xG/match
1.03 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 16/161.92 xG/match
14.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 16/1610.8 shots/match
11 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 16/1615.5 shots/match
5.31 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/163.19 shots/match
3.56 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 16/165.88 shots/match
51.6%●Possessionseason · 16/1645.7%
5.94 corners/match●Cornersseason · 16/164.25 corners/match
4.19 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/166.44 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1613.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
44%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/160%
88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1650%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atalanta52.5
Salernitana30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atalanta85.8
Salernitana10.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atalanta62.5
Salernitana5.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atalanta62.5
Salernitana37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atalanta77.5
Salernitana92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atalanta87.5
Salernitana25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atalanta85
Salernitana35.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Atalanta16 matchesSalernitana16 matches
1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored16/160.75 goals/match
1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/162.13 goals/match
1.35 xG/match▲Expected goals16/160.82 xG/match
14.1 shots/match▲Shots16/1610.8 shots/match
5.31 shots/match▲Shots on target16/163.19 shots/match
51.6%●Possession16/1645.7%
5.94 corners/match●Corners16/164.25 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.9 fouls/matchFouls16/1613.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Atalanta8 matchesSalernitana8 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.63 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/82.25 goals/match
1.6 xG/match▲Expected goals8/80.75 xG/match
15.6 shots/match▲Shots8/89.13 shots/match
6.38 shots/match▲Shots on target8/82.63 shots/match
49.9%●Possession8/846.5%
6.75 corners/match●Corners8/83 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.9 fouls/matchFouls8/813.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.11 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 18 Dec 2023, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtalantaSalernitana
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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