PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Atalanta 4–1 Salernitana · Serie A

4–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Atalanta won 4–1.

Shots
2010
Shots on target
113
Expected goals
1.891.32
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atalanta beat Salernitana 4–1. Recorded in this match (Atalanta – Salernitana): shots 20–10, shots on target 11–3, expected goals 1.89–1.32, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Salernitana's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Salernitana's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.75 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.1 shots/match ▲ShotsAtalanta · Salernitana10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtalantaSalernitanaBaseline
Shots14.1 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against11 shots/match15.5 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Salernitana have a visible away split

moderate

Salernitana's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.13 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.13 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots10 shotsAtalanta 20 shots, Salernitana 10 shots
  • Shots on target11 shots3 shotsAtalanta 11 shots, Salernitana 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.89 xG1.32 xGAtalanta 1.89 xG, Salernitana 1.32 xG
  • Possession52%48%Atalanta 52%, Salernitana 48%
  • Corners10 corners7 cornersAtalanta 10 corners, Salernitana 7 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls11 foulsAtalanta 9 fouls, Salernitana 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Agustín Martegani · Salernitana · 50′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLuis Muriel · Atalanta · 32′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLuis Muriel · Atalanta · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDavide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Candreva · Salernitana · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 23′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLuis Muriel · Atalanta · 65′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedÉderson · Atalanta · 13′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuis Muriel · Atalanta · 30′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuis Muriel · Atalanta · 62′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLorenzo Pirola · Salernitana · 10′ · 0.05 xG · goalGiulio Maggiore · Salernitana · 22′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDavide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 35′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLuis Muriel · Atalanta · 47′ · 0.05 xG · goalMario Pašalić · Atalanta · 52′ · 0.06 xG · goalAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 58′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 51′ · 0.07 xG · on targetDomagoj Bradarić · Salernitana · 69′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAleksey Miranchuk · Atalanta · 87′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedBoulaye Dia · Salernitana · 75′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAleksey Miranchuk · Atalanta · 89′ · 0.09 xG · goalBoulaye Dia · Salernitana · 50′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedTeun Koopmeiners · Atalanta · 8′ · 0.16 xG · on targetTeun Koopmeiners · Atalanta · 20′ · 0.16 xG · on targetAleksey Miranchuk · Atalanta · 90′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedFlavius Daniliuc · Salernitana · 21′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedBoulaye Dia · Salernitana · 49′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 12′ · 0.29 xG · on targetCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 83′ · 0.43 xG · goalChukwubuikem Ikwuemesi · Salernitana · 73′ · 0.50 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Atalanta: 20 shots, 11 on target, 1.90 xG. Salernitana: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.31 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Luis Muriel · Atalanta · 47′Mario Pašalić · Atalanta · 52′Charles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 83′Aleksey Miranchuk · Atalanta · 89′Lorenzo Pirola · Salernitana · 10′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atalanta 1.90 xG · Salernitana 1.31 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Atalanta
1Draws
1Salernitana
Salernitana — Atalanta · Serie A1–0
Atalanta — Salernitana · Serie A8–2
Atalanta — Salernitana · Serie A1–1
Salernitana — Atalanta · Serie A0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atalanta favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Salernitana in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atalanta16 matchesSalernitana16 matches
1.75 goals/match ▲Goals scored16/160.75 goals/match
1.19 goals/match ▲Goals allowed16/162.13 goals/match
1.35 xG/match ▲Expected goals16/160.82 xG/match
14.1 shots/match ▲Shots16/1610.8 shots/match
5.31 shots/match ▲Shots on target16/163.19 shots/match
51.6% ●Possession16/1645.7%
5.94 corners/match ●Corners16/164.25 corners/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls16/1613.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 18 Dec 2023, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtalantaSalernitana
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023/24
Head-to-headAtalanta — Salernitana
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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