Serie A · 2023Sat, 30 Dec 2023, 17:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Milan

WWLWD

1–0Full-time recap

Sassuolo

WLLDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Milan	Sassuolo
Shots	20 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	2 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.56 xG/match▲	0.49 xG/match
Possession	59%●	41%
Corners	6 corners/match●	5 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Milan: 20 shots, 2 on target, 1.53 xG. Sassuolo: 12 shots, 6 on target, 0.47 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Milan 1.53 xG · Sassuolo 0.47 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sassuolo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Sassuolo's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Sassuolo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sassuolo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.39 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.39 goals/match	1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Sassuolo show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Sassuolo's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.2 shots/match▲ShotsMilan · Sassuolo14 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Milan	Sassuolo	Baseline
Shots	13.2 shots/match	14 shots/match	12.4 shots/match
Shots against	14.6 shots/match	14.8 shots/match	12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Milan have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.6%●PossessionMilan · Sassuolo46.2%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Milan	Sassuolo	Baseline
Possession	55.6%	46.2%	51.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Milan

1Draws

2Sassuolo

29 Jan 2023Milan — Sassuolo · Serie A2–5

30 Aug 2022Sassuolo — Milan · Serie A0–0

22 May 2022Sassuolo — Milan · Serie A0–3

28 Nov 2021Milan — Sassuolo · Serie A1–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Milan favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Sassuolo in 1 · 4 too close

1.78 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/181.39 goals/match

1.11 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/181.83 goals/match

1.52 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 18/181.29 xG/match

1.3 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 18/181.67 xG/match

13.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 18/18▲14 shots/match

14.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/1814.8 shots/match

4.94 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 18/184.89 shots/match

4.11 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/185 shots/match

55.6%●Possessionseason · 18/1846.2%

4.44 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/18●5.78 corners/match

4.39 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/185.72 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/189.94 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

39%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/180%

89%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1872%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Milan77.5

Sassuolo42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Milan80.8

Sassuolo74.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Milan41.7

Sassuolo17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Milan32.5

Sassuolo92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Milan17.5

Sassuolo7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Milan30

Sassuolo87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Milan49.4

Sassuolo63.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Milan18 matchesSassuolo18 matches

1.78 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.39 goals/match

1.11 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.83 goals/match

1.52 xG/match▲Expected goals18/181.29 xG/match

13.2 shots/matchShots18/18▲14 shots/match

4.94 shots/matchShots on target18/184.89 shots/match

55.6%●Possession18/1846.2%

4.44 corners/matchCorners18/18●5.78 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFouls18/189.94 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Milan9 matchesSassuolo9 matches

1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.44 goals/match

0.44 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/92 goals/match

1.55 xG/match▲Expected goals9/91.27 xG/match

13 shots/matchShots9/912.7 shots/match

4.78 shots/matchShots on target9/94.78 shots/match

53.3%●Possession9/946.3%

5.22 corners/matchCorners9/9●5.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFouls9/910.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.89 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.98 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples18 / 18home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Dec 2023, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4