Serie A · 2023Sat, 6 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Frosinone

LDLLL

2–3Full-time recap

Monza

LWLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Frosinone	Monza
Shots	10 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.16 xG/match	1.34 xG/match▲
Possession	60%●	40%
Corners	5 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	16 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Frosinone's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Monza's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Frosinone's recent record differs from the season

weak

Frosinone's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.32 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.32 goals/match	1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Monza show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Monza's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.2 shots/match▲ShotsFrosinone · Monza12.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Frosinone	Monza	Baseline
Shots	11.2 shots/match	12.7 shots/match	12.5 shots/match
Shots against	15.2 shots/match	14.8 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Frosinone favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Monza in 4 · 7 too close

1.32 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 19/191 goals/match

1.79 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 19/19▲1.05 goals/match

1.13 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 19/191.13 xG/match

1.49 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 19/191.42 xG/match

11.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 19/19▲12.7 shots/match

15.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 19/1914.8 shots/match

3.63 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 19/193.74 shots/match

4.89 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 19/195.11 shots/match

52.6%Possessionseason · 19/19●53.4%

4.95 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/19●5 corners/match

5.63 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 19/19▲4.95 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/1912.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

11%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/19▲32%

79%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 19/1963%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Frosinone57.5

Monza72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Frosinone39.2

Monza43.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Frosinone15.8

Monza34.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Frosinone12.5

Monza42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Frosinone12.5

Monza37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Frosinone67.5

Monza72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Frosinone35

Monza52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Frosinone19 matchesMonza19 matches

1.32 goals/match▲Goals scored19/191 goals/match

1.79 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲1.05 goals/match

1.13 xG/matchExpected goals19/191.13 xG/match

11.2 shots/matchShots19/19▲12.7 shots/match

3.63 shots/matchShots on target19/193.74 shots/match

52.6%Possession19/19●53.4%

4.95 corners/matchCorners19/19●5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.2 fouls/matchFouls19/1912.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Frosinone10 matchesMonza10 matches

1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match

1.08 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.02 xG/match

11.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲12 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.5 shots/match

53.6%●Possession10/1052%

5.1 corners/match●Corners10/104.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.76 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.85 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples19 / 19home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Jan 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4